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Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor1:05 PM PT
Model pickSan Diego Padres

San Diego Padres 5.0 · San Francisco Giants 3.2

68%confidence
San Diego Padres24-16+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj -0.2) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 50%
San Francisco Giants16-24-1-1.2 net/g (SOS-adj -1.2) · expected win rate 36% · last 10: 30%
Venue EdgeOracle ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Two reasons the projection lands on San Diego Padres: San Diego Padres’s scoring margin profile and San Diego Padres’s recent stretch. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. San Diego Padres is 50% over their recent sample; San Francisco Giants is 30%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
  • Net efficiency. San Diego Padres projects 51% from points-for vs points-allowed; San Francisco Giants sits at 36%.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

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