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Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor1:20 PM CT
Model pickChicago Cubs

Pittsburgh Pirates 4.3 · Chicago Cubs 4.8

61%confidence
Pittsburgh Pirates22-19+0.8 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 57% · last 10: 60%
Chicago Cubs27-14-1+1.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.0) · expected win rate 61% · last 10: 80%
Venue EdgeWrigley FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Two reasons the projection lands on Chicago Cubs: Chicago Cubs’s scoring margin profile and Chicago Cubs’s recent stretch. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. Chicago Cubs is 80% over their recent sample; Pittsburgh Pirates is 60%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

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