PIT @ CHC
Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Pittsburgh Pirates 4.3 · Chicago Cubs 4.8
Two reasons the projection lands on Chicago Cubs: Chicago Cubs’s scoring margin profile and Chicago Cubs’s recent stretch. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Three things to watch
- Form gap. Chicago Cubs is 80% over their recent sample; Pittsburgh Pirates is 60%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Mitch Keller SP · #23
- Paul Skenes SP · #30
- Mason Montgomery RP · #46
- Bryan Reynolds LF · #10
Chicago Cubs
- Edward Cabrera SP · #30
- Jameson Taillon SP · #50
- Alex Bregman 3B · #3
- Nico Hoerner 2B · #2
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.