LAL @ HOU
Toyota Center (Houston) · Houston, TX
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameIndoor8:30 PM CTPrime Video
Result readLos Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers 98 · Houston Rockets 78
Final
Los Angeles Lakers57-33+1.4 net/g (SOS-adj +1.7) · expected win rate 54% · last 10: 60%
Houston Rockets54-34+4.7 net/g (SOS-adj +4.3) · expected win rate 64% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeToyota Center (Houston)Home adjustment: +2.2 rating pts
Pick goes to Los Angeles Lakers on the back of Houston Rockets’s margin work and Los Angeles Lakers’s last-ten momentum. Three-point variance and free-throw rate move this number more than total field-goal percentage does.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Houston Rockets at 72%. Actual: Los Angeles Lakers by 20.
Pre-game pick: Houston Rockets at 72%. Actual: Los Angeles Lakers by 20.
Players to Watch
Los Angeles Lakers
- Deandre Ayton C · #5
- Luka Doncic G · #77
- LeBron James F · #23
- Marcus Smart G · #36
Houston Rockets
- Amen Thompson G · #1
- Kevin Durant F · #7
- Jabari Smith Jr. F · #10
- Alperen Sengun C · #28
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Game Leaders
Los Angeles LakersLeBron James28 pts
Houston RocketsAmen Thompson18 pts
Injury Report
Houston Rockets
Kevin DurantOutSteven AdamsOutFred VanVleetOut
Los Angeles Lakers
Jarred VanderbiltDay-To-DayLuka DoncicOut
On The Court
A quick look at where each team's starters slot in. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreClint Capela makes two point shot98–78
- ScoreAaron Holiday makes driving layup98–76
- ScoreJae'Sean Tate makes running layup98–74
- 🎯 3-PointerJosh Okogie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Holiday assists)98–72
- 🏀 DunkAdou Thiero makes tip in dunk98–69
- ScoreNick Smith Jr. makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Bronny James assists)96–69
Scoring by Period
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Lakers | 23 | 26 | 22 | 27 | 98 |
| Houston Rockets | 18 | 13 | 24 | 23 | 78 |
Team Stats
| Los Angeles Lakers | Stat | Houston Rockets |
|---|---|---|
| 36-89 | FG | 28-80 |
| 12-28 | 3PT | 5-28 |
| 14-24 | FT | 17-24 |
| 54 | REB | 45 |
| 19 | AST | 13 |
| 4 | STL | 6 |
| 9 | BLK | 9 |
| 10 | TO | 11 |
Los Angeles Lakers
| Player | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James F· | 37 | 28 | 10-25 | 2-5 | 6-8 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +26 |
| Rui Hachimura F· | 35 | 21 | 8-15 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +20 |
| Deandre Ayton C· | 28 | 7 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3-7 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 5 | +5 |
| Marcus Smart G· | 35 | 7 | 2-7 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | +25 |
| Austin Reaves G· | 31 | 15 | 7-14 | 0-4 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +3 |
| Jake LaRavia F | 16 | 7 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +2 |
| Dalton Knecht F | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -6 |
| Adou Thiero F | 3 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -6 |
| Jaxson Hayes C | 17 | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +21 |
| Luke Kennard G | 29 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +22 |
| Nick Smith Jr. G | 3 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 |
| Bronny James G | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -6 |
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabari Smith Jr. F· | 42 | 9 | 3-11 | 1-6 | 2-3 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 5 | -24 |
| Tari Eason F· | 37 | 14 | 5-14 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -14 |
| Alperen Sengun C· | 38 | 17 | 5-12 | 0-0 | 7-10 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 4 | -27 |
| Amen Thompson G· | 45 | 18 | 7-14 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 5 | -26 |
| Reed Sheppard G· | 36 | 10 | 4-19 | 1-10 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -24 |
| Dorian Finney-Smith F | 8 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -13 |
| Jae'Sean Tate F | 6 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +10 |
| Clint Capela C | 2 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +7 |
| Aaron Holiday G | 12 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +4 |
| Josh Okogie G | 13 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| JD Davison G | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +7 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 4th Quarter · 0.0End of Game
- 4th Quarter · 0.0End of the 4th Quarter
- 4th Quarter · 21.3Clint Capela makes two point shot98–78
- 4th Quarter · 21.3Clint Capela offensive rebound
- 4th Quarter · 23.6Jae'Sean Tate misses running pullup jump shot
- 4th Quarter · 28.0Jae'Sean Tate defensive rebound
- 4th Quarter · 29.2Nick Smith Jr. misses 27-foot three point jumper
- 4th Quarter · 50.3Aaron Holiday makes driving layup98–76
- 4th Quarter · 1:05Josh Okogie defensive rebound
- 4th Quarter · 1:05Dalton Knecht misses 26-foot three point jumper
- 4th Quarter · 1:08Jake LaRavia offensive rebound
- 4th Quarter · 1:09Jake LaRavia misses tip shot
Scoring Plays
- 4th Quarter · 21.3Clint Capela makes two point shot98–78
- 4th Quarter · 50.3Aaron Holiday makes driving layup98–76
- 4th Quarter · 1:19Jae'Sean Tate makes running layup98–74
- 4th Quarter · 1:46Josh Okogie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Holiday assists)98–72
- 4th Quarter · 1:58Adou Thiero makes tip in dunk98–69
- 4th Quarter · 2:25Nick Smith Jr. makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Bronny James assists)96–69
- 4th Quarter · 2:50Amen Thompson makes two point shot93–69
- 4th Quarter · 3:30Jaxson Hayes makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (LeBron James assists)93–67
- 4th Quarter · 4:19Amen Thompson makes 3-foot driving dunk91–67
- 4th Quarter · 4:30Marcus Smart makes 25-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)91–65
- 4th Quarter · 4:55Reed Sheppard makes 29-foot three point jumper (Tari Eason assists)88–65
- 4th Quarter · 5:03LeBron James makes free throw 2 of 288–62
- 4th Quarter · 5:03LeBron James makes free throw 1 of 287–62
- 4th Quarter · 5:36Marcus Smart makes 25-foot three point jumper (Rui Hachimura assists)86–62
- 4th Quarter · 6:06LeBron James makes 4-foot two point shot (Luke Kennard assists)83–62
- 4th Quarter · 6:36Tari Eason makes 3-foot running dunk81–62
- 4th Quarter · 7:00Alperen Sengun makes tip in dunk81–60
- 4th Quarter · 7:09Rui Hachimura makes 14-foot turnaround jump shot81–58
- 4th Quarter · 7:53Jaxson Hayes makes free throw 1 of 279–58
- 4th Quarter · 8:46Alperen Sengun makes free throw 1 of 278–58
- 4th Quarter · 9:05Deandre Ayton makes tip shot78–57
- 4th Quarter · 10:51LeBron James makes 4-foot two point shot76–57
- 4th Quarter · 11:20Reed Sheppard makes 9-foot jumper (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)74–57
- 4th Quarter · 11:35Rui Hachimura makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)74–55
- 3rd Quarter · 37.5Alperen Sengun makes 10-foot two point shot (Josh Okogie assists)71–55