WSH @ CHC
Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameOutdoor1:20 PM CT⚾ Cade Cavalli vs Matthew BoydMLB.TVNationals.TV
Result readWashington Nationals
Washington Nationals 10 · Chicago Cubs 4
Final
Washington Nationals19-22-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 50%
Chicago Cubs27-14-1+1.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.0) · expected win rate 61% · last 10: 80%
Venue EdgeWrigley FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Pick goes to Washington Nationals on the back of Chicago Cubs’s margin work and Chicago Cubs’s last-ten momentum. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 79%. Actual: Washington Nationals by 6.
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 79%. Actual: Washington Nationals by 6.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Washington Nationals
- Cade Cavalli SP · #24
- Jake Irvin SP · #27
- PJ Poulin RP · #50
- James Wood RF · #29
Chicago Cubs
- Edward Cabrera SP · #30
- Jameson Taillon SP · #50
- Alex Bregman 3B · #3
- Nico Hoerner 2B · #2
Injury Report
Chicago Cubs
Jeff BrighamDay-To-DayJaxon WigginsDay-To-DayJordan Wicks15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd15-Day-IL
Washington Nationals
Cole Henry15-Day-ILClayton Beeter15-Day-ILJosiah Gray60-Day-ILTrevor Williams60-Day-ILTyler BaumDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreYoung homered to right (380 feet), Ruiz scored.7–2
- ScoreCrow-Armstrong reached on bunt single to third, Busch scored, Bregman to second.8–4
- ScoreNuñez scored on Brown wild pitch.8–3
- ScoreNuñez scored on Brown wild pitch.8–3
- ScoreBusch singled to left, Swanson scored.1–1
- ScoreWiemer homered to left (398 feet).1–0
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 2 |
| Chicago Cubs | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
Washington Nationals
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Wood RF· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 19 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Andres Chaparro 1B· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .667 | .667 | 1.000 |
| Luis Garcia Jr. 1B | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Brady House 3B· | 2-5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | .400 | .400 | 1.000 |
| Daylen Lile LF· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .200 | .200 | .200 |
| Joey Wiemer RF· | 3-3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 |
| CJ Abrams SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .250 | .250 | .250 |
| Nasim Nunez 2B· | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .000 | .500 | .000 |
| Keibert Ruiz C· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | .250 | .250 | .250 |
| Jacob Young CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .250 | .250 | 1.000 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cavalli SP· | 3.2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 75-46 | 4.91 | 75 |
| PJ Poulin RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24-13 | 0.00 | 24 |
| Brad Lord RP | 2.1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 47-32 | 3.86 | 47 |
| Clayton Beeter RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 24-12 | 0.00 | 24 |
| Cionel Perez RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 12-8 | 0.00 | 12 |
Chicago Cubs
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Busch 1B· | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | .750 | .800 | 1.250 |
| Alex Bregman 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 27 | .250 | .400 | .250 |
| Ian Happ LF· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | .200 | .200 | .200 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CF· | 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | .400 | .400 | .400 |
| Nico Hoerner 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Carson Kelly C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22 | .333 | .500 | .333 |
| Moises Ballesteros C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | .000 | .250 | .000 |
| Dansby Swanson SS· | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 23 | .000 | .500 | .000 |
| Matt Shaw RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Michael Conforto RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Boyd SP· | 3.2 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 63-45 | 14.73 | 63 |
| Ben Brown RP | 3.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 49-29 | 5.40 | 49 |
| Hoby Milner RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11-7 | 0.00 | 11 |
| Jacob Webb RP | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 15-11 | 0.00 | 15 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 6th InningSwanson grounded out to pitcher, Kelly to second.
- 6th InningRuiz grounded out to second, Nuñez to third.
- 4th InningShaw grounded out to shortstop.
- 3rd InningShaw flied out to right, Swanson to third.
- 8th InningSwanson walked.
- 8th InningKelly grounded out to shortstop.
Scoring Plays
- 4th InningYoung homered to right (380 feet), Ruiz scored.7–2
- 7th InningCrow-Armstrong reached on bunt single to third, Busch scored, Bregman to second.8–4
- 6th InningNuñez scored on Brown wild pitch.8–3
- 6th InningNuñez scored on Brown wild pitch.8–3
- 3rd InningBusch singled to left, Swanson scored.1–1
- 2nd InningWiemer homered to left (398 feet).1–0
- 4th InningSwanson grounded out to second, Hoerner scored, Kelly to third.7–3
- 4th InningNuñez grounded out to shortstop, Wiemer scored.5–2
- 4th InningLile singled to right, Chaparro scored, House to third.2–2
- 9th InningHouse homered to right (367 feet), García Jr. scored.10–4
- 4th InningAbrams singled to right, House scored and Lile scored, Abrams thrown out at second, Wiemer to third.4–2
- 3rd InningCrow-Armstrong singled to right, Busch scored, Bregman thrown out at third.1–2