LAA @ HOU
Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameIndoor7:10 PM CT⚾ Yusei Kikuchi vs Mike BurrowsApple TV
Result readLos Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Angels 6 · Houston Astros 2
Final
Los Angeles Angels16-25-0.6 net/g (SOS-adj -0.5) · expected win rate 44% · last 10: 40%
Houston Astros16-25-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 43% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeDaikin ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans Los Angeles Angels because Los Angeles Angels owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Houston Astros has the recent-form edge. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Houston Astros at 62%. Actual: Los Angeles Angels by 4.
Pre-game pick: Houston Astros at 62%. Actual: Los Angeles Angels by 4.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Los Angeles Angels
- Jose Soriano SP · #59
- Yusei Kikuchi SP · #16
- Brent Suter RP · #37
- Jo Adell RF · #7
Houston Astros
- Mike Burrows SP · #50
- Lance McCullers Jr. SP · #43
- Kai-Wei Teng RP · #17
- Christian Walker 1B · #8
Injury Report
Houston Astros
Tatsuya Imai15-Day-ILLance McCullers Jr.Day-To-DayWalker JanekDay-To-DayLucas SpenceDay-To-DayYainer Diaz10-Day-IL
Los Angeles Angels
Ryan Johnson15-Day-ILBen Joyce15-Day-ILLogan O'Hoppe10-Day-ILTravis d'Arnaud10-Day-ILGrayson Rodriguez15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreAlvarez homered to right (378 feet).5–2
- 💣 Home RunPeña to third on wild pitch. Peña scored on throwing error by catcher O'Hoppe.1–1
- 💣 Home RunPeña scored on throwing error by catcher O'Hoppe.1–1
- ScoreSchanuel grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Neto scored, Trout out at second.1–0
- ScoreNeto homered to left center (358 feet).6–2
- ScoreTrout homered to left (403 feet).5–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 2 |
| Houston Astros | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Los Angeles Angels
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Neto SS· | 2-5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .200 | .200 | .600 |
| Mike Trout CF· | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 25 | .667 | .800 | 1.667 |
| Nolan Schanuel 1B· | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 22 | .375 | .500 | .750 |
| Jorge Soler RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | .111 | .200 | .111 |
| Yoan Moncada 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | .143 | .400 | .143 |
| Jo Adell RF· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23 | .375 | .500 | .375 |
| Josh Lowe LF· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .250 | .250 | .750 |
| Bryce Teodosio LF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Logan O'Hoppe C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | .375 | .375 | .375 |
| Oswald Peraza 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | .143 | .250 | .143 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yusei Kikuchi SP· | 4.1 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 86-53 | 4.15 | 86 |
| Chase Silseth RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10-7 | 0.00 | 10 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn RP | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 23-15 | 0.00 | 23 |
| Sam Bachman RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 27-14 | 0.00 | 27 |
| Jordan Romano RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13-9 | 0.00 | 13 |
Houston Astros
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Pena SS· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | .400 | .400 | .400 |
| Yordan Alvarez LF· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .125 | .222 | .500 |
| Isaac Paredes 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | .000 | .125 | .000 |
| Jose Altuve 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | .167 | .375 | .167 |
| Carlos Correa SS· | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | .286 | .375 | .286 |
| Cam Smith RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | .000 | .125 | .000 |
| Christian Walker 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | .167 | .286 | .333 |
| Yainer Diaz C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .143 | .250 | .143 |
| Brice Matthews LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | .333 | .333 | .667 |
| Joey Loperfido LF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .400 | .400 | .600 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Burrows SP· | 5.2 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 94-59 | 7.94 | 94 |
| Roddery Munoz RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 26-10 | 0.00 | 26 |
| Steven Okert RP | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 20-15 | 0.00 | 20 |
| Ryan Weiss RP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 22-14 | 9.00 | 22 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 8th InningAltuve struck out looking.
- 6th InningPeraza walked.
- 5th InningSmith lined out to first.
- 9th InningLoperfido struck out swinging.
- 9th InningTrout walked.
Scoring Plays
- 5th InningAlvarez homered to right (378 feet).5–2
- 1st InningPeña to third on wild pitch. Peña scored on throwing error by catcher O'Hoppe.1–1
- 1st InningPeña scored on throwing error by catcher O'Hoppe.1–1
- 1st InningSchanuel grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Neto scored, Trout out at second.1–0
- 9th InningNeto homered to left center (358 feet).6–2
- 5th InningTrout homered to left (403 feet).5–1
- 2nd InningLowe homered to left center (374 feet), Moncada scored and Adell scored.4–1