MIN @ BAL
Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Afternoon GameOutdoor4:05 PM ET42°F · 3 mph wind · clear⚾ Taj Bradley vs Kyle BradishMLB.TVTwins.TV
Result readMinnesota Twins
Minnesota Twins 4 · Baltimore Orioles 1
Final
Minnesota Twins18-23-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.5) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 50%
Baltimore Orioles18-23-1-1.0 net/g (SOS-adj -1.1) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 30%
Venue EdgeOriole Park at Camden YardsHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Minnesota Twins is the model’s call — Minnesota Twins on the margin numbers, Minnesota Twins on the form numbers. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Minnesota Twins at 77%. Actual: Minnesota Twins by 3.
Pre-game pick: Minnesota Twins at 77%. Actual: Minnesota Twins by 3.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Minnesota Twins
- Bailey Ober SP · #17
- Joe Ryan SP · #41
- Josh Bell 1B · #56
- Luke Keaschall 2B · #15
Baltimore Orioles
- Chris Bassitt SP · #40
- Kyle Bradish SP · #38
- Gunnar Henderson SS · #2
- Pete Alonso 1B · #25
Injury Report
Baltimore Orioles
Will RobertsonDay-To-DayTrevor Rogers15-Day-ILKeagan GilliesDay-To-DayJackson Holliday10-Day-ILLuis VazquezDay-To-Day
Minnesota Twins
Cory LewisDay-To-DayGarrett Acton15-Day-ILCole Sands15-Day-ILJulian MerryweatherDay-To-DayCody Laweryson15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreClemens singled to center, Lewis scored.4–1
- ScoreBell hit sacrifice fly to left, Buxton scored.1–1
- ScoreLewis homered to left (378 feet), Larnach scored.3–1
- ScoreJackson singled to left, Cowser scored.0–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Minnesota Twins
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kody Clemens 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | .200 | .200 | .200 |
| Byron Buxton CF· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .375 | .375 | .625 |
| Luke Keaschall 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .143 | .125 | .143 |
| Matt Wallner RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | .000 | .375 | .000 |
| Josh Bell 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .000 | .125 | .000 |
| Ryan Jeffers C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20 | .143 | .250 | .143 |
| Trevor Larnach LF· | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | .000 | .250 | .000 |
| James Outman CF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Royce Lewis 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | .200 | .429 | .800 |
| Brooks Lee SS· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taj Bradley SP· | 4.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 92-58 | 2.08 | 92 |
| Anthony Banda RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 15-7 | 0.00 | 15 |
| Kody Funderburk RP | 0.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13-9 | 6.75 | 13 |
| Eric Orze RP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21-11 | 0.00 | 21 |
| Justin Topa RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12-8 | 4.50 | 12 |
| Cole Sands RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 16-8 | 0.00 | 16 |
Baltimore Orioles
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Ward LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 22 | .000 | .222 | .000 |
| Gunnar Henderson SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 22 | .000 | .111 | .000 |
| Pete Alonso 1B· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | .125 | .222 | .125 |
| Adley Rutschman C· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 19 | .333 | .500 | .500 |
| Samuel Basallo C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20 | .143 | .250 | .143 |
| Dylan Beavers RF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Tyler O'Neill RF | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | .250 | .400 | .250 |
| Coby Mayo 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | .000 | .286 | .000 |
| Colton Cowser RF· | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .250 | .200 | .500 |
| Ryan Mountcastle 1B | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| Leody Taveras CF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Jeremiah Jackson 2B· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .500 | .500 | .500 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Bradish SP· | 4.2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 83-50 | 3.86 | 83 |
| Yennier Cano RP | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8-5 | 0.00 | 8 |
| Dietrich Enns RP | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 33-17 | 5.40 | 33 |
| Yaramil Hiraldo RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3-3 | 0.00 | 3 |
| Anthony Nunez RP | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 22-16 | 0.00 | 22 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 1st InningBasallo walked, Rutschman to second, Alonso to third.
- 6th InningWallner flied out to center.
- 4th InningMayo walked.
Scoring Plays
- 7th InningClemens singled to center, Lewis scored.4–1
- 4th InningBell hit sacrifice fly to left, Buxton scored.1–1
- 5th InningLewis homered to left (378 feet), Larnach scored.3–1
- 2nd InningJackson singled to left, Cowser scored.0–1