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In The Rafters

WSH @ CHC

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor1:20 PM CT46°F · 8 mph wind · clear⚾ Miles Mikolas vs Cade HortonESPN UnlmtdMLB.TVNationals.TV
Result readChicago Cubs

Washington Nationals 2 · Chicago Cubs 10

Final
Washington Nationals19-22-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 50%
Chicago Cubs27-14-1+1.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.0) · expected win rate 61% · last 10: 80%
Venue EdgeWrigley FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans Chicago Cubs because Chicago Cubs owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Chicago Cubs has the recent-form edge. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 75%. Actual: Chicago Cubs by 8.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Washington Nationals

Chicago Cubs

Injury Report

Chicago Cubs

Jeff BrighamDay-To-DayJaxon WigginsDay-To-DayJordan Wicks15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd15-Day-IL

Washington Nationals

Cole Henry15-Day-ILClayton Beeter15-Day-ILJosiah Gray60-Day-ILTrevor Williams60-Day-ILTyler BaumDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Washington Nationals
DL Daylen Lile LF · #4 JY Jacob Young CF · #30 JW James Wood RF · #29 BH Brady House 3B · #12 CA CJ Abrams SS · #5 NN Nasim Nunez 2B · #26 LG L. Garcia Jr. 1B · #2 CC Cade Cavalli P · #24 DM Drew Millas C · #14
Chicago Cubs
IH Ian Happ LF · #8 PC Crow-Armstrong CF · #4 MS Matt Shaw RF · #6 AB Alex Bregman 3B · #3 DS Dansby Swanson SS · #7 NH Nico Hoerner 2B · #2 MB Michael Busch 1B · #29 EC Edward Cabrera P · #30 MB M. Ballesteros C · #25

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreKelly walked, Crow-Armstrong scored, Swanson to second, Hoerner to third.6th Inning2–10
  2. 🏃 DoubleHoerner doubled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored.5th Inning2–6
  3. ScoreNuñez singled to center, House scored.5th Inning2–5
  4. ScoreAmaya reached on infield single to first, Swanson scored, Ballesteros to third.2nd Inning0–2
  5. ScoreAmaya homered to left center (390 feet).4th Inning1–5
  6. ScoreWood homered to left center (364 feet).4th Inning1–4

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Washington Nationals000110000241
Chicago Cubs04011400—10100

Washington Nationals

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
James Wood RF·1-4411110112.111.111.444
Drew Millas C·0-3300001114.000.250.000
Luis Garcia Jr. 1B·1-440100008.167.167.167
Daylen Lile LF·1-3301001015.250.333.250
Brady House 3B·0-3310001224.250.333.625
Jorbit Vivas 3B·0-330000006.000.000.000
Nasim Nunez 2B·1-3301100113.200.429.200
Jose Tena 2B·0-220000006.000.000.000
Andres Chaparro 1B0-000000107.667.7501.000
Jacob Young CF·0-3300000111.143.143.571

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Miles Mikolas SP·5.066434197-577.2097
Andre Granillo RP0.212210018-827.0018
Ken Waldichuk RP1.132222132-1713.5032
Cole Henry RP1.000001011-70.0011

Chicago Cubs

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Michael Busch 1B·1-4411001014.500.600.750
Alex Bregman 3B·0-5500000121.111.200.111
Ian Happ LF·1-5511310116.200.200.500
Pete Crow-Armstrong CF·2-4422001119.444.500.444
Nico Hoerner 2B·1-3311102022.143.333.286
Dansby Swanson SS·1-3311001015.200.500.200
Moises Ballesteros C·1-3311000213.167.286.167
Carson Kelly C0-000010106.333.600.333
Matt Shaw RF·1-3311100113.167.143.167
Miguel Amaya C·2-4422210119.500.5001.250

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Cade Horton SP·6.142214175-532.8475
Phil Maton RP0.20000109-60.009
Caleb Thielbar RP1.000011016-90.0016
Jacob Webb RP1.000020016-70.0016

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 5th InningHouse walked.
  2. 5th InningPitch 11 : Ball 4
  3. 3rd InningHoerner popped out to second.
  4. 5th InningPitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul
  5. 3rd InningPitch 8 : Ball In Play
  6. 2nd InningSwanson walked.
  7. 8th InningChaparro walked.

Scoring Plays

  1. 6th InningKelly walked, Crow-Armstrong scored, Swanson to second, Hoerner to third.2–10
  2. 5th InningHoerner doubled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored.2–6
  3. 5th InningNuñez singled to center, House scored.2–5
  4. 2nd InningAmaya reached on infield single to first, Swanson scored, Ballesteros to third.0–2
  5. 4th InningAmaya homered to left center (390 feet).1–5
  6. 4th InningWood homered to left center (364 feet).1–4
  7. 2nd InningBallesteros scored on error and Amaya scored on error, Busch safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Nuñez, Busch safe at second on error.0–4
  8. 6th InningHapp homered to left center, Shaw scored and Busch scored.2–9
  9. 2nd InningShaw hit sacrifice fly to center, Hoerner scored.0–1

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