CHW @ MIA
loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameIndoor6:40 PM ET⚾ Davis Martin vs Chris PaddackMLB.TVMarlins.TV
Result readChicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox 9 · Miami Marlins 4
Final
Chicago White Sox19-21-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.5) · expected win rate 46% · last 10: 60%
Miami Marlins19-22-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.0) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeloanDepot parkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Chicago White Sox gets the model’s nod thanks to Miami Marlins’s margin advantage, with Chicago White Sox’s recent run providing the second tip. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Chicago White Sox at 55%. Actual: Chicago White Sox by 5.
Pre-game pick: Chicago White Sox at 55%. Actual: Chicago White Sox by 5.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Chicago White Sox
- Davis Martin SP · #65
- Grant Taylor RP · #31
- Anthony Kay SP · #18
- Bryan Hudson RP · #60
Miami Marlins
- Eury Perez SP · #39
- Sandy Alcantara SP · #22
- Jakob Marsee CF · #87
- Xavier Edwards 2B · #9
Injury Report
Miami Marlins
Owen CaissieDay-To-DayPete Fairbanks15-Day-ILGriffin Conine10-Day-ILRonny Henriquez60-Day-ILJesus TinocoOut
Chicago White Sox
Andrew BenintendiDay-To-DayAustin Hays10-Day-ILEverson Pereira10-Day-ILKyle Teel10-Day-ILKy Bush60-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreVargas hit sacrifice fly to right, Acuña scored.9–3
- ScoreHicks homered to right (371 feet), Edwards scored.8–2
- ScoreVargas homered to left (402 feet), Peters, Pereira and Acuña scored.8–0
- ScoreHays homered to right (353 feet), Vargas and Murakami scored.4–0
- ScoreHicks singled to left, Marsee scored.9–4
- ScoreMarsee singled to right, Conine scored.8–3
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 0 |
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
Chicago White Sox
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Vargas 3B· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | .308 | .375 | .538 |
| Munetaka Murakami 1B· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .286 | .444 | .929 |
| Austin Hays LF· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 26 | .200 | .200 | .467 |
| Colson Montgomery SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .286 | .375 | .500 |
| Lenyn Sosa 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Tristan Peters CF· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .444 | .500 | .556 |
| Derek Hill RF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | .000 | .500 | .000 |
| Everson Pereira RF· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .286 | .333 | .571 |
| Edgar Quero C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Luisangel Acuna CF· | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | .111 | .273 | .111 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Martin SP· | 5.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 92-54 | 5.40 | 92 |
| Sean Newcomb RP | 2.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 51-31 | 5.40 | 51 |
| Jordan Hicks RP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13-7 | 11.57 | 13 |
Miami Marlins
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Marsee CF· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | .188 | .235 | .375 |
| Xavier Edwards 2B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .400 | .438 | .467 |
| Agustin Ramirez C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | .167 | .375 | .167 |
| Liam Hicks C· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .375 | .400 | 1.125 |
| Otto Lopez SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .286 | .375 | .357 |
| Owen Caissie RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | .385 | .429 | .769 |
| Connor Norby 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .167 | .375 | .250 |
| Griffin Conine LF· | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | .333 | .429 | .500 |
| Austin Slater LF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Javier Sanoja 3B | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .625 | .625 | .750 |
| Graham Pauley 3B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | .167 | .167 | .167 |
| Heriberto Hernandez LF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | .000 | .200 | .000 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paddack SP· | 4.0 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 79-52 | 18.00 | 79 |
| Lake Bachar RP | 3.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 42-23 | 3.00 | 42 |
| John King RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11-6 | 0.00 | 11 |
| Michael Petersen RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11-7 | 0.00 | 11 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 8th InningHill walked.
- 6th InningVargas hit sacrifice fly to right, Acuña scored.9–3
- 2nd InningCaissie flied out to center.
- 2nd InningSosa struck out swinging.
- 8th InningPitch 6 : Ball 4
- 6th InningPitch 6 : Ball In Play
- 2nd InningPitch 8 : Ball In Play
Scoring Plays
- 6th InningVargas hit sacrifice fly to right, Acuña scored.9–3
- 4th InningHicks homered to right (371 feet), Edwards scored.8–2
- 4th InningVargas homered to left (402 feet), Peters, Pereira and Acuña scored.8–0
- 3rd InningHays homered to right (353 feet), Vargas and Murakami scored.4–0
- 8th InningHicks singled to left, Marsee scored.9–4
- 5th InningMarsee singled to right, Conine scored.8–3
- 3rd InningVargas singled to left, Pereira scored.1–0