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InTheRafters.com

CHC @ CLE

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Afternoon GameOutdoor4:30 PM ET41°F · 15 mph wind · overcast⚾ Shota Imanaga vs Parker MessickMLB.TVCLEGuardians.TV
Result readCleveland Guardians

Chicago Cubs 5 · Cleveland Guardians 6

Final
Chicago Cubs27-14-1+1.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.0) · expected win rate 61% · last 10: 80%
Cleveland Guardians21-21-1-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeProgressive FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Cleveland Guardians gets the model’s nod thanks to Chicago Cubs’s margin advantage, with Chicago Cubs’s recent run providing the second tip. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 83%. Actual: Cleveland Guardians by 1.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Chicago Cubs

Cleveland Guardians

Injury Report

Cleveland Guardians

Gabriel Arias10-Day-ILShawn Armstrong15-Day-ILAndrew Walters15-Day-ILCarlos HernandezDay-To-Day

Chicago Cubs

Jeff BrighamDay-To-DayJaxon WigginsDay-To-DayJordan Wicks15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd15-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Chicago Cubs
IH Ian Happ LF · #8 PC Crow-Armstrong CF · #4 MS Matt Shaw RF · #6 AB Alex Bregman 3B · #3 DS Dansby Swanson SS · #7 NH Nico Hoerner 2B · #2 MB Michael Busch 1B · #29 EC Edward Cabrera P · #30 MB M. Ballesteros C · #25
Cleveland Guardians
AM Angel Martinez LF · #1 SK Steven Kwan CF · #38 CD Chase DeLauter RF · #24 JR Jose Ramirez 3B · #11 BR Brayan Rocchio SS · #4 TB Travis Bazzana 2B · #37 KM Kyle Manzardo 1B · #9 GW Gavin Williams P · #32 BN Bo Naylor C · #23

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreHedges singled to left, Hoskins scored, Arias to second.8th Inning4–6
  2. ScoreArias singled to center, Kayfus scored, Hoskins to third.6th Inning3–3
  3. ScoreKayfus singled to right, Kwan scored, Martínez to third.6th Inning3–1
  4. ScoreHapp singled to center, Hoerner scored, Bregman to third.9th Inning5–6
  5. ScoreKayfus homered to right (352 feet).8th Inning4–4
  6. ScoreArias singled to left, DeLauter scored, Hoskins to second.8th Inning4–5

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Chicago Cubs001002011570
Cleveland Guardians00000303—690

Chicago Cubs

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner 2B·1-3311002027.276.436.448
Alex Bregman 3B·0-4400001119.167.268.333
Ian Happ LF·2-5512210220.189.268.541
Scott Kingery 3B0-000000000.000.000.000
Carson Kelly C·1-4411001223.250.357.250
Michael Busch 1B·0-3300001120.188.316.250
Dansby Swanson SS·1-4411210218.138.257.241
Matt Shaw RF·1-3311111116.217.240.348
Pete Crow-Armstrong CF·1-4401000017.235.278.265
Dylan Carlson LF·0-3300000216.000.000.000
Moises Ballesteros C0-110000014.150.227.150

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Shota Imanaga SP·5.031114092-624.5092
Ben Brown RP2.022220042-224.1542
Jacob Webb RP0.133310120-107.3620
Ethan Roberts RP0.210000013-100.0013

Cleveland Guardians

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Steven Kwan CF·1-5511000130.216.310.270
Angel Martinez LF·0-3310001018.143.308.190
Jose Ramirez 3B·0-4400000020.154.214.282
David Fry RF·1-110100108.333.400.444
CJ Kayfus LF2-2222210010.214.353.500
Chase DeLauter RF·1-3311100118.313.343.781
Rhys Hoskins 1B·0-2210002116.250.455.375
Gabriel Arias SS·2-4402200016.179.233.393
Austin Hedges C·2-4402100018.500.500.750
Brayan Rocchio SS·0-4400000113.185.353.222

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Parker Messick SP·5.021136191-510.8291
Matt Festa RP1.022201113-117.7113
Erik Sabrowski RP0.210001014-80.0014
Shawn Armstrong RP1.111112129-153.1829
Cade Smith RP1.011122033-207.5033

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 8th InningHedges singled to left, Hoskins scored, Arias to second.4–6
  2. 1st InningKwan popped out to shortstop.
  3. 9th InningKelly struck out swinging.
  4. 9th InningHoerner walked.
  5. 8th InningPitch 9 : Ball In Play
  6. 1st InningPitch 10 : Ball In Play
  7. 9th InningPitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

Scoring Plays

  1. 8th InningHedges singled to left, Hoskins scored, Arias to second.4–6
  2. 6th InningArias singled to center, Kayfus scored, Hoskins to third.3–3
  3. 6th InningKayfus singled to right, Kwan scored, Martínez to third.3–1
  4. 9th InningHapp singled to center, Hoerner scored, Bregman to third.5–6
  5. 8th InningKayfus homered to right (352 feet).4–4
  6. 8th InningArias singled to left, DeLauter scored, Hoskins to second.4–5
  7. 8th InningHapp homered to right (382 feet).4–3
  8. 6th InningDeLauter hit sacrifice fly to center, Martínez scored.3–2
  9. 6th InningSwanson homered to left center (380 feet), Kelly scored.3–0
  10. 3rd InningShaw homered to right (355 feet).1–0

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