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In The Rafters

CHC @ TB

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameIndoor6:40 PM ET⚾ Javier Assad vs Mason EnglertMLB.TVRays.TV
Result readChicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs 9 · Tampa Bay Rays 2

Final
Chicago Cubs27-14-1+1.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.0) · expected win rate 61% · last 10: 80%
Tampa Bay Rays26-13-1+0.5 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 56% · last 10: 85%
Venue EdgeTropicana FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Chicago Cubs is the model’s call — Chicago Cubs on the margin numbers, Tampa Bay Rays on the form numbers. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Tampa Bay Rays at 58%. Actual: Chicago Cubs by 7.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Chicago Cubs

Tampa Bay Rays

Injury Report

Tampa Bay Rays

Ty JohnsonDay-To-DayJohn RooneyDay-To-DayGavin Lux10-Day-ILTJ NicholsDay-To-DayAustin VernonDay-To-Day

Chicago Cubs

Jeff BrighamDay-To-DayJaxon WigginsDay-To-DayJordan Wicks15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd15-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Chicago Cubs
IH Ian Happ LF · #8 PC Crow-Armstrong CF · #4 MS Matt Shaw RF · #6 AB Alex Bregman 3B · #3 DS Dansby Swanson SS · #7 NH Nico Hoerner 2B · #2 MB Michael Busch 1B · #29 EC Edward Cabrera P · #30 MB M. Ballesteros C · #25
Tampa Bay Rays
CS C. Simpson LF · #14 CM Cedric Mullins CF · #31 JD Jonny DeLuca RF · #21 JC J. Caminero 3B · #13 TW Taylor Walls SS · #6 BW Ben Williamson 2B · #15 JA J. Aranda 1B · #8 DR Drew Rasmussen P · #57 NF Nick Fortes C · #40

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreBallesteros homered to right (379 feet), Crow-Armstrong scored.9th Inning9–2
  2. ScoreHoerner grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Ballesteros scored, Shaw out at second, Conforto to third.6th Inning5–0
  3. ScoreHoerner singled to left, Swanson scored, Conforto to second.8th Inning7–0
  4. 🏃 DoubleShaw doubled to left, Conforto scored.2nd Inning2–0
  5. ScoreVilade reached on infield single to pitcher, Díaz scored, Aranda to third.8th Inning7–2
  6. ScoreConforto singled to right, Swanson scored.2nd Inning1–0

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Chicago Cubs0220011129160
Tampa Bay Rays000000020261

Chicago Cubs

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner 2B·2-4402201024.297.438.432
Michael Busch 1B·0-5500000115.154.277.205
Alex Bregman 3B·3-5513000018.200.280.356
Pete Crow-Armstrong CF·3-5533110010.256.289.349
Miguel Amaya C·0-5500000116.294.400.529
Moises Ballesteros C·2-4422310019.208.259.333
Dansby Swanson SS·2-5522000116.162.273.270
Michael Conforto RF·2-3312102022.250.438.250
Matt Shaw RF·2-5502100220.250.265.469

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Javier Assad SP·5.210023080-490.0080
Hoby Milner RP1.120000017-132.8417
Phil Maton RP0.232201026-1813.5026
Caleb Thielbar RP0.10000002-20.002
Jacob Webb RP1.000011014-75.7914

Tampa Bay Rays

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Yandy Diaz 1B·0-3310000016.386.471.591
Jonathan Aranda 1B·2-440210009.244.327.511
Jake Fraley RF·0-2200000010.200.286.320
Ryan Vilade RF1-220110005.100.182.100
Junior Caminero 3B·0-3300001222.238.360.405
Chandler Simpson LF·2-4402000015.405.444.452
Cedric Mullins CF·0-3300001113.122.159.220
Nick Fortes C·0-4400000012.303.343.485
Richie Palacios 2B·1-3311001117.250.455.438
Taylor Walls SS·0-4400000120.143.143.286

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Mason Englert RP·3.274312065-489.4565
Cole Sulser RP2.131112037-224.7037
Yoendrys Gomez RP3.064411258-336.2358

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 9th InningBallesteros homered to right (379 feet), Crow-Armstrong scored.9–2
  2. 8th InningCaminero struck out swinging.
  3. 6th InningConforto walked.
  4. 5th InningAmaya struck out swinging.

Scoring Plays

  1. 9th InningBallesteros homered to right (379 feet), Crow-Armstrong scored.9–2
  2. 6th InningHoerner grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Ballesteros scored, Shaw out at second, Conforto to third.5–0
  3. 8th InningHoerner singled to left, Swanson scored, Conforto to second.7–0
  4. 2nd InningShaw doubled to left, Conforto scored.2–0
  5. 8th InningVilade reached on infield single to pitcher, Díaz scored, Aranda to third.7–2
  6. 2nd InningConforto singled to right, Swanson scored.1–0
  7. 7th InningCrow-Armstrong homered to right (389 feet).6–0
  8. 3rd InningBregman scored on throwing error by catcher Fortes, Crow-Armstrong stole third.3–0
  9. 8th InningAranda doubled to center, Palacios scored, Díaz to third.7–1
  10. 3rd InningBallesteros hit sacrifice fly to center, Crow-Armstrong scored.4–0
  11. 3rd InningBregman scored on throwing error by catcher Fortes, Crow-Armstrong stole third.3–0

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