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InTheRafters.com

HOU @ SEA

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameIndoor6:40 PM PT⚾ Tatsuya Imai vs Emerson HancockMLB.TVMariners.TV
Result readSeattle Mariners

Houston Astros 6 · Seattle Mariners 9

Final
Houston Astros16-25-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 43% · last 10: 50%
Seattle Mariners19-22+0.0 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeT-Mobile ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans Seattle Mariners because Seattle Mariners owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Houston Astros has the recent-form edge. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Seattle Mariners at 60%. Actual: Seattle Mariners by 3.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Houston Astros

Seattle Mariners

Injury Report

Seattle Mariners

Patrick Wisdom10-Day-ILVictor Robles10-Day-ILBryce Miller15-Day-ILTeddy McGrawDay-To-DayJose Ferrerpaternity

Houston Astros

Tatsuya Imai15-Day-ILLance McCullers Jr.Day-To-DayWalker JanekDay-To-DayLucas SpenceDay-To-DayYainer Diaz10-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Houston Astros
YA Yordan Alvarez LF · #44 DJ Daniel Johnson CF · #31 CS Cam Smith RF · #11 IP Isaac Paredes 3B · #15 CC Carlos Correa SS · #1 JA Jose Altuve 2B · #27 CW C. Walker 1B · #8 MB Mike Burrows P · #50 YD Yainer Diaz C · #21
Seattle Mariners
RA R. Arozarena LF · #56 JR J. Rodriguez CF · #44 LR Luke Raley RF · #20 LR Leo Rivas 3B · #76 CR J.P. Crawford SS · #3 CY Cole Young 2B · #2 JN Josh Naylor 1B · #12 BW Bryan Woo P · #22 CR Cal Raleigh C · #29

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreRaleigh grounded out to second, Rivas scored, Crawford to second.7th Inning3–9
  2. ScoreArozarena homered to left center (426 feet), Naylor scored.5th Inning3–5
  3. 🏃 DoubleVázquez doubled to left, Correa scored, Paredes scored and Walker scored.2nd Inning3–3
  4. 🏃 DoubleCanzone doubled to right, Raley scored, Young to third.7th Inning3–6
  5. ScoreRaley grounded out to second, Rodríguez scored, Arozarena to second, Naylor to third.1st Inning0–3
  6. ScoreArozarena hit by pitch, Raleigh scored, Naylor to second, Rodríguez to third.1st Inning0–2

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Houston Astros030000030680
Seattle Mariners30002040—990

Houston Astros

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Jeremy Pena SS·1-5511000123.250.302.350
Yordan Alvarez LF·2-3312311018.341.516.750
Jose Altuve 2B·0-4400000115.306.443.510
Isaac Paredes 3B·1-2211000012.226.368.355
Christian Walker 1B·0-3310001122.321.390.604
Carlos Correa SS·1-4411000116.261.346.370
Cam Smith RF·0-4400000015.250.357.479
Joey Loperfido LF·1-3301001121.278.357.361
Christian Vazquez C·2-3312300117.348.375.609
Taylor Trammell CF0-000000105.0001.000.000

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Tatsuya Imai SP·0.113340037-177.2737
Steven Okert RP1.200002021-154.0521
Ryan Weiss RP2.142224164-357.3664
J.P. France SP2.234443059-3413.5059
Enyel De Los Santos RP1.010001010-72.2510

Seattle Mariners

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
J.P. Crawford SS·1-3311102120.150.346.200
Cal Raleigh C·0-3310102033.135.250.231
Julio Rodriguez CF·1-5511000121.148.246.148
Josh Naylor 1B·1-4411001223.115.193.115
Randy Arozarena LF·2-4412310120.271.407.396
Luke Raley RF·1-4411100216.237.310.526
Cole Young 2B·1-3311002121.265.333.469
Dominic Canzone RF·1-4411101221.207.281.483
Leo Rivas 3B·1-2211002016.167.302.222

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Emerson Hancock SP·5.043325088-562.0488
Gabe Speier RP1.010000012-73.0012
Eduard Bazardo RP1.000000017-111.5917
Cole Wilcox RP0.133300118-125.7918
Matt Brash RP0.20000004-20.004
Andres Munoz RP1.000021025-123.6025

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 5th InningCanzone walked.
  2. 4th InningRaleigh flied out to right, Rivas to third.
  3. 2nd InningWalker walked.
  4. 5th InningPitch 7 : Ball 4

Scoring Plays

  1. 7th InningRaleigh grounded out to second, Rivas scored, Crawford to second.3–9
  2. 5th InningArozarena homered to left center (426 feet), Naylor scored.3–5
  3. 2nd InningVázquez doubled to left, Correa scored, Paredes scored and Walker scored.3–3
  4. 7th InningCanzone doubled to right, Raley scored, Young to third.3–6
  5. 1st InningRaley grounded out to second, Rodríguez scored, Arozarena to second, Naylor to third.0–3
  6. 1st InningArozarena hit by pitch, Raleigh scored, Naylor to second, Rodríguez to third.0–2
  7. 8th InningAlvarez homered to right (389 feet), Vázquez scored and Peña scored.6–9
  8. 7th InningCrawford singled to center, Canzone scored, Rivas to third.3–8
  9. 7th InningYoung scored on France wild pitch, Canzone to third on wild pitch by France.3–7
  10. 7th InningYoung scored on France wild pitch, Canzone to third on wild pitch by France.3–7
  11. 1st InningCrawford scored on Imai wild pitch, Rodríguez to second on wild pitch by Imai, Raleigh to third on wild pitch by Imai.0–1
  12. 1st InningCrawford scored on Imai wild pitch, Rodríguez to second on wild pitch by Imai, Raleigh to third on wild pitch by Imai.0–1

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