MIN @ TOR
Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameIndoor7:07 PM ET⚾ Simeon Woods Richardson vs Patrick CorbinMLB.TVTwins.TV
Result readToronto Blue Jays
Minnesota Twins 4 · Toronto Blue Jays 10
Final
Minnesota Twins18-23-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.5) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 50%
Toronto Blue Jays18-22-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeRogers CentreHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Two reasons the projection lands on Toronto Blue Jays: Toronto Blue Jays’s scoring margin profile and Minnesota Twins’s recent stretch. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Toronto Blue Jays at 59%. Actual: Toronto Blue Jays by 6.
Pre-game pick: Toronto Blue Jays at 59%. Actual: Toronto Blue Jays by 6.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Minnesota Twins
- Bailey Ober SP · #17
- Joe Ryan SP · #41
- Josh Bell 1B · #56
- Luke Keaschall 2B · #15
Toronto Blue Jays
- Kevin Gausman SP · #34
- Dylan Cease SP · #84
- Braydon Fisher RP · #63
- Mason Fluharty RP · #68
Injury Report
Toronto Blue Jays
Javen ColemanDay-To-DayNathan Lukes10-Day-ILCJ StubbsDay-To-DayLazaro Estrada15-Day-ILFernando Perezdevelopmental list
Minnesota Twins
Cory LewisDay-To-DayGarrett Acton15-Day-ILCole Sands15-Day-ILJulian MerryweatherDay-To-DayCody Laweryson15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreLee homered to left (382 feet).4–0
- 🏃 DoubleSpringer doubled to left, Clement scored.4–8
- ScoreSchneider singled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored.4–9
- ScoreVarsho homered to right center (405 feet).4–6
- 🏃 DoubleSchneider doubled to right, Sánchez scored.4–2
- 🏃 DoubleClement doubled to left, Schneider scored.4–7
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | 10 | 14 | 0 |
Minnesota Twins
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton CF· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 24 | .180 | .263 | .280 |
| Austin Martin LF· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 27 | .286 | .474 | .321 |
| Luke Keaschall 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | .204 | .254 | .278 |
| Josh Bell 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | .289 | .400 | .578 |
| Ryan Jeffers C· | 3-3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .294 | .415 | .441 |
| Victor Caratini C· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | .275 | .362 | .300 |
| Matt Wallner RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | .214 | .267 | .411 |
| Brooks Lee SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18 | .206 | .270 | .294 |
| Tristan Gray 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | .263 | .318 | .474 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simeon Woods Richardson SP· | 4.0 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 68-47 | 4.60 | 68 |
| Anthony Banda RP | 1.2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 36-18 | 9.39 | 36 |
| Taylor Rogers RP | 1.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 30-18 | 4.26 | 30 |
| Justin Topa RP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12-9 | 5.40 | 12 |
Toronto Blue Jays
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Springer DH· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 24 | .189 | .283 | .377 |
| Daulton Varsho CF· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .209 | .306 | .349 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B· | 3-5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | .304 | .429 | .435 |
| Jesus Sanchez LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .278 | .350 | .444 |
| Myles Straw RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .385 | .429 | .385 |
| Kazuma Okamoto 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | .220 | .291 | .360 |
| Davis Schneider LF· | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | .294 | .478 | .529 |
| Ernie Clement 2B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .288 | .302 | .365 |
| Andres Gimenez SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .271 | .314 | .438 |
| Brandon Valenzuela C· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .250 | .250 | .500 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin SP· | 4.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 85-52 | 9.00 | 85 |
| Tommy Nance RP | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10-7 | 7.50 | 10 |
| Joe Mantiply RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 15-10 | 9.00 | 15 |
| Louis Varland RP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23-13 | 0.00 | 23 |
| Braydon Fisher RP | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 32-22 | 0.00 | 32 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 7th InningBell grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Keaschall out at second.
- 1st InningKeaschall reached on infield single to shortstop.
- 8th InningJeffers hit by pitch.
- 7th InningOkamoto lined out to left.
- 7th InningPitch 9 : Ball In Play
Scoring Plays
- 4th InningLee homered to left (382 feet).4–0
- 6th InningSpringer doubled to left, Clement scored.4–8
- 7th InningSchneider singled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored.4–9
- 5th InningVarsho homered to right center (405 feet).4–6
- 4th InningSchneider doubled to right, Sánchez scored.4–2
- 6th InningClement doubled to left, Schneider scored.4–7
- 4th InningGiménez singled to left, Schneider scored.4–3
- 8th InningGuerrero Jr. doubled to left, Valenzuela scored.4–10
- 4th InningValenzuela homered to right (383 feet), Giménez scored.4–5
- 4th InningSánchez doubled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored.4–1
- 1st InningJeffers homered to left center (419 feet), Martin scored and Keaschall scored.3–0