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InTheRafters.com

HOU @ SEA

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameIndoor6:40 PM PT⚾ Lance McCullers Jr. vs Luis CastilloESPN UnlmtdMLB.TVMariners.TV
Result readSeattle Mariners

Houston Astros 7 · Seattle Mariners 8

Final
Houston Astros16-25-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 43% · last 10: 50%
Seattle Mariners19-22+0.0 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeT-Mobile ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Pick goes to Seattle Mariners on the back of Seattle Mariners’s margin work and Houston Astros’s last-ten momentum. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Seattle Mariners at 62%. Actual: Seattle Mariners by 1.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Houston Astros

Seattle Mariners

Injury Report

Seattle Mariners

Patrick Wisdom10-Day-ILVictor Robles10-Day-ILBryce Miller15-Day-ILTeddy McGrawDay-To-DayJose Ferrerpaternity

Houston Astros

Tatsuya Imai15-Day-ILLance McCullers Jr.Day-To-DayWalker JanekDay-To-DayLucas SpenceDay-To-DayYainer Diaz10-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Houston Astros
YA Yordan Alvarez LF · #44 DJ Daniel Johnson CF · #31 CS Cam Smith RF · #11 IP Isaac Paredes 3B · #15 CC Carlos Correa SS · #1 JA Jose Altuve 2B · #27 CW C. Walker 1B · #8 MB Mike Burrows P · #50 YD Yainer Diaz C · #21
Seattle Mariners
RA R. Arozarena LF · #56 JR J. Rodriguez CF · #44 LR Luke Raley RF · #20 LR Leo Rivas 3B · #76 CR J.P. Crawford SS · #3 CY Cole Young 2B · #2 JN Josh Naylor 1B · #12 BW Bryan Woo P · #22 CR Cal Raleigh C · #29

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreSmith singled to center, Correa scored and Loperfido scored.3rd Inning6–2
  2. ScoreRaleigh hit sacrifice fly to left, Rivas scored.5th Inning7–5
  3. ScoreRodríguez homered to center (426 feet), Crawford scored.5th Inning7–7
  4. ScoreCrawford singled to center, Canzone scored and Young scored, Rivas to second, Rivas safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Trammell.5th Inning7–4
  5. ScoreParedes singled to left, Trammell scored, Peña to third.4th Inning7–2
  6. ScoreAlvarez homered to right center (395 feet).3rd Inning4–2

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Houston Astros0331000007171
Seattle Mariners200050001870

Houston Astros

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Jeremy Pena SS·1-3301000011.256.304.349
Nick Allen SS0-110000005.273.385.273
Christian Walker 1B0-110000105.315.393.593
Yordan Alvarez LF·3-6613110023.360.515.800
Isaac Paredes 3B·1-5501100118.222.349.333
Jose Altuve 2B·1-4401001117.302.439.491
Carlos Correa SS·3-5523000018.294.368.412
Joey Loperfido LF·2-4422001226.300.383.400
Cam Smith RF·4-5514200128.302.393.547
Yainer Diaz C·0-5500000217.200.245.222
Taylor Trammell CF·2-4412301216.500.667.750

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Lance McCullers Jr. SP·4.156624179-465.8779
Steven Okert RP0.211100111-84.9111
Kai-Wei Teng RP0.200012020-122.1620
Bryan King RP1.100011025-181.3525
AJ Blubaugh RP1.000000017-129.6417
Bryan Abreu RP0.111131023-1020.2523

Seattle Mariners

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
J.P. Crawford SS·2-3322302026.217.419.261
Cal Raleigh C·1-3311310019.145.250.291
Julio Rodriguez CF·2-4412210122.172.262.241
Josh Naylor 1B·0-440000005.107.180.107
Randy Arozarena LF·0-3300001125.255.397.373
Luke Raley RF·0-4400000316.214.283.476
Cole Young 2B·1-3321001118.269.345.462
Dominic Canzone RF·1-221100006.226.294.516
Rob Refsnyder RF0-110000009.000.158.000
Brendan Donovan 3B0-000000104.316.435.605
Leo Rivas 3B·0-2210002225.158.319.211

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Luis Castillo SP·3.1107713191-686.9291
Casey Legumina RP1.220002020-140.0020
Jose Ferrer RP1.010001021-153.0021
Eduard Bazardo RP1.020002016-131.3516
Matt Brash RP1.010010012-60.0012
Andres Munoz RP1.010021024-103.0024

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 8th InningRodríguez grounded out to shortstop.
  2. 3rd InningSmith singled to center, Correa scored and Loperfido scored.6–2
  3. 8th InningPitch 9 : Ball In Play
  4. 3rd InningPitch 13 : Ball In Play
  5. 8th InningPitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul
  6. 6th InningRefsnyder grounded out to third.
  7. 3rd InningPitch 12 : Strike 2 Foul
  8. 8th InningPitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

Scoring Plays

  1. 3rd InningSmith singled to center, Correa scored and Loperfido scored.6–2
  2. 5th InningRaleigh hit sacrifice fly to left, Rivas scored.7–5
  3. 5th InningRodríguez homered to center (426 feet), Crawford scored.7–7
  4. 5th InningCrawford singled to center, Canzone scored and Young scored, Rivas to second, Rivas safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Trammell.7–4
  5. 4th InningParedes singled to left, Trammell scored, Peña to third.7–2
  6. 3rd InningAlvarez homered to right center (395 feet).4–2
  7. 9th InningCrawford singled to left, Young scored, Rivas to second, Donovan to third.7–8
  8. 2nd InningTrammell doubled to left, Correa scored, Smith scored and Loperfido scored.3–2
  9. 1st InningRaleigh homered to right (364 feet), Crawford scored.0–2

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