Skip to content

InTheRafters.com

PIT @ CHC

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor1:20 PM CT48°F · 4 mph wind · overcast⚾ Braxton Ashcraft vs Edward CabreraMLB.TV
Result readPittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates 4 · Chicago Cubs 3

Final
Pittsburgh Pirates22-19+0.8 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 57% · last 10: 60%
Chicago Cubs27-14-1+1.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.0) · expected win rate 61% · last 10: 80%
Venue EdgeWrigley FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans Pittsburgh Pirates because Chicago Cubs owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Chicago Cubs has the recent-form edge. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 61%. Actual: Pittsburgh Pirates by 1.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Pittsburgh Pirates

Chicago Cubs

Injury Report

Chicago Cubs

Jeff BrighamDay-To-DayJaxon WigginsDay-To-DayJordan Wicks15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd15-Day-IL

Pittsburgh Pirates

Dominic FletcherDay-To-DayJake Mangum10-Day-ILChris Devenski15-Day-ILJared Jones60-Day-ILOddanier MosquedaDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Pittsburgh Pirates
BR Bryan Reynolds LF · #10 OC Oneil Cruz CF · #15 RO Ryan O'Hearn RF · #29 NG Nick Gonzales 3B · #3 KG Konnor Griffin SS · #6 BL Brandon Lowe 2B · #5 SH S. Horwitz 1B · #2 MK Mitch Keller P · #23 HD Henry Davis C · #32
Chicago Cubs
IH Ian Happ LF · #8 PC Crow-Armstrong CF · #4 MS Matt Shaw RF · #6 AB Alex Bregman 3B · #3 DS Dansby Swanson SS · #7 NH Nico Hoerner 2B · #2 MB Michael Busch 1B · #29 EC Edward Cabrera P · #30 MB M. Ballesteros C · #25

Box Score

Highlights

  1. 💣 Home RunGonzales scored on error, Lowe safe at first on throwing error by pitcher Thielbar, Cruz safe at third on error.11th Inning4–3
  2. ScoreSwanson grounded out to shortstop, Amaya scored.7th Inning3–2
  3. ScoreO'Hearn hit sacrifice fly to right, Lowe scored.3rd Inning3–0
  4. ScoreBregman singled to center, Swanson scored, Shaw to third.9th Inning3–3
  5. ScoreHorwitz grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Ozuna scored, Yorke out at second.2nd Inning1–0
  6. ScoreHoerner grounded out to second, Conforto scored, Swanson to third.5th Inning3–1

Scoring by Inning

Team1234567891011RHE
Pittsburgh Pirates012000000014111
Chicago Cubs00001010100393

Pittsburgh Pirates

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Oneil Cruz CF·4-5514001018.345.400.618
Brandon Lowe 2B·0-4410002131.200.333.444
Bryan Reynolds LF·2-5502100116.259.349.444
Jake Mangum LF0-110000015.207.258.241
Ryan O'Hearn RF·0-3300101021.319.414.553
Marcell Ozuna DH·0-4410001124.051.159.051
Nick Yorke 3B·3-4403001118.379.486.483
Spencer Horwitz 1B·1-4401000021.235.341.265
Billy Cook RF0-000000000.000.000.000
Nick Gonzales 3B0-111000003.267.313.333
Konnor Griffin SS·1-5501000219.154.233.192
Henry Davis C·0-4400000417.194.286.290
Joey Bart C0-110000014.133.235.133

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Braxton Ashcraft SP·5.041119077-502.1277
Mason Montgomery RP1.010002013-107.1113
Justin Lawrence RP0.211110013-79.9513
Gregory Soto RP0.10000001-11.041
Isaac Mattson RP1.020001024-172.0824
Dennis Santana RP1.011120027-151.1327
Yohan Ramirez RP2.000032032-181.8632

Chicago Cubs

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner 2B·1-6601100021.308.422.481
Michael Busch 1B·0-3300000214.118.220.157
Carson Kelly C0-110000106.294.429.353
Matt Shaw RF0-110000004.237.268.421
Alex Bregman 3B·2-6602100121.207.281.328
Ian Happ LF·0-5500001222.208.309.500
Moises Ballesteros C·2-220200002.258.314.355
Seiya Suzuki RF1-4401000113.286.375.286
Pete Crow-Armstrong CF·1-4401001316.218.259.291
Miguel Amaya C·0-4410001433.238.360.429
Michael Conforto RF·1-3311002118.263.440.316
Dansby Swanson SS·1-4411101017.149.281.234

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Edward Cabrera SP·5.083334098-621.6298
Ben Brown RP2.020013034-213.5534
Jacob Webb RP1.010002017-124.7617
Hoby Milner RP1.000000012-82.1612
Daniel Palencia RP1.000010017-90.0017
Caleb Thielbar RP1.001013019-153.3819

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 8th InningAmaya struck out swinging.
  2. 8th InningPitch 10 : Strike 3 Swinging
  3. 4th InningLowe walked.
  4. 8th InningPitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul

Scoring Plays

  1. 11th InningGonzales scored on error, Lowe safe at first on throwing error by pitcher Thielbar, Cruz safe at third on error.4–3
  2. 7th InningSwanson grounded out to shortstop, Amaya scored.3–2
  3. 3rd InningO'Hearn hit sacrifice fly to right, Lowe scored.3–0
  4. 9th InningBregman singled to center, Swanson scored, Shaw to third.3–3
  5. 2nd InningHorwitz grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Ozuna scored, Yorke out at second.1–0
  6. 5th InningHoerner grounded out to second, Conforto scored, Swanson to third.3–1
  7. 3rd InningReynolds singled to right, Cruz scored, Lowe to third.2–0

Trending