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In The Rafters

MIN @ TOR

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameIndoor1:37 PM ET⚾ Taj Bradley vs Max ScherzerMLB.TVTwins.TV
Result readMinnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins 8 · Toronto Blue Jays 2

Final
Minnesota Twins18-23-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.5) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 50%
Toronto Blue Jays18-22-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeRogers CentreHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Minnesota Twins gets the model’s nod thanks to Toronto Blue Jays’s margin advantage, with Minnesota Twins’s recent run providing the second tip. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Toronto Blue Jays at 61%. Actual: Minnesota Twins by 6.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Minnesota Twins

Toronto Blue Jays

Injury Report

Toronto Blue Jays

Javen ColemanDay-To-DayNathan Lukes10-Day-ILCJ StubbsDay-To-DayLazaro Estrada15-Day-ILFernando Perezdevelopmental list

Minnesota Twins

Cory LewisDay-To-DayGarrett Acton15-Day-ILCole Sands15-Day-ILJulian MerryweatherDay-To-DayCody Laweryson15-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Minnesota Twins
AM Austin Martin LF · #16 BB Byron Buxton CF · #25 MW Matt Wallner RF · #38 RL Royce Lewis 3B · #23 BL Brooks Lee SS · #22 LK Luke Keaschall 2B · #15 JB Josh Bell 1B · #56 BO Bailey Ober P · #17 RJ Ryan Jeffers C · #27
Toronto Blue Jays
JS Jesus Sanchez LF · #12 DV Daulton Varsho CF · #5 MS Myles Straw RF · #3 KO Kazuma Okamoto 3B · #7 AG Andres Gimenez SS · #0 EC Ernie Clement 2B · #22 VG Guerrero Jr. 1B · #27 KG Kevin Gausman P · #34 TH Tyler Heineman C · #55

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreSánchez hit sacrifice fly to left, Clement scored.7th Inning8–2
  2. ScoreWallner singled to right, Larnach scored, Bell to second, Keaschall to third.3rd Inning5–1
  3. ScoreClemens homered to right center (417 feet).3rd Inning4–1
  4. ScoreCaratini hit sacrifice fly to right, Keaschall scored, Bell to third.3rd Inning6–1
  5. ScoreVarsho singled to right, Clement scored.1st Inning0–1
  6. ScoreGray homered to right (396 feet), Bell scored and Wallner scored.2nd Inning3–1

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Minnesota Twins035000000880
Toronto Blue Jays1000001002120

Minnesota Twins

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Kody Clemens 1B·1-5511110225.143.273.357
Trevor Larnach LF·1-5511000215.259.412.444
Austin Martin LF0-000000000.300.500.333
Luke Keaschall 2B·2-4412000218.213.269.279
Josh Bell 1B·0-2220002119.275.397.529
Matt Wallner RF·1-3321100119.220.281.407
Victor Caratini C·1-3301100115.261.345.283
Tristan Gray 3B·1-331131009.273.346.591
Brooks Lee SS·1-4401200112.238.289.405
James Outman CF·0-4400000213.000.053.000

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Taj Bradley SP·5.0511470106-621.25106
Andrew Morris RP3.061102067-503.0067
Justin Topa RP1.010000012-84.7012

Toronto Blue Jays

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Ernie Clement 2B·3-5523000017.311.323.393
Daulton Varsho CF·3-5503100023.250.328.442
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B·1-3301002021.321.446.434
Jesus Sanchez LF·1-4401100224.273.327.477
Kazuma Okamoto 3B·0-4400001127.204.283.333
Nathan Lukes RF·0-4400000119.077.138.077
Eloy Jimenez DH·2-4402000216.500.500.500
Andres Gimenez SS·2-4402000116.278.328.444
Brandon Valenzuela C·0-3300001222.167.211.333

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Max Scherzer SP·2.158823268-419.5868
Joe Mantiply RP1.220001021-155.7921
Tommy Nance RP1.00000108-76.438
Mason Fluharty RP1.000002013-96.7513
Louis Varland RP1.000003016-110.0016
Tyler Rogers RP1.01000007-60.007
Jeff Hoffman RP1.000002012-102.3512

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 7th InningVarsho flied out to right.
  2. 4th InningValenzuela walked, Giménez to second.
  3. 7th InningSánchez hit sacrifice fly to left, Clement scored.8–2
  4. 7th InningPitch 10 : Ball In Play
  5. 4th InningPitch 10 : Ball 4
  6. 1st InningGuerrero Jr. walked, Varsho to second.

Scoring Plays

  1. 7th InningSánchez hit sacrifice fly to left, Clement scored.8–2
  2. 3rd InningWallner singled to right, Larnach scored, Bell to second, Keaschall to third.5–1
  3. 3rd InningClemens homered to right center (417 feet).4–1
  4. 3rd InningCaratini hit sacrifice fly to right, Keaschall scored, Bell to third.6–1
  5. 1st InningVarsho singled to right, Clement scored.0–1
  6. 2nd InningGray homered to right (396 feet), Bell scored and Wallner scored.3–1
  7. 3rd InningLee doubled to left, Bell scored and Wallner scored, Gray to third.8–1

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