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In The Rafters

PIT @ CHC

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor1:20 PM CT74°F · 14 mph wind · overcast⚾ Bubba Chandler vs Jameson TaillonMLB.TV
Result readChicago Cubs

Pittsburgh Pirates 6 · Chicago Cubs 7

Final
Pittsburgh Pirates22-19+0.8 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 57% · last 10: 60%
Chicago Cubs27-14-1+1.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.0) · expected win rate 61% · last 10: 80%
Venue EdgeWrigley FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Chicago Cubs gets the model’s nod thanks to Chicago Cubs’s margin advantage, with Chicago Cubs’s recent run providing the second tip. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 60%. Actual: Chicago Cubs by 1.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Pittsburgh Pirates

Chicago Cubs

Injury Report

Chicago Cubs

Jeff BrighamDay-To-DayJaxon WigginsDay-To-DayJordan Wicks15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd15-Day-IL

Pittsburgh Pirates

Dominic FletcherDay-To-DayJake Mangum10-Day-ILChris Devenski15-Day-ILJared Jones60-Day-ILOddanier MosquedaDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Pittsburgh Pirates
BR Bryan Reynolds LF · #10 OC Oneil Cruz CF · #15 RO Ryan O'Hearn RF · #29 NG Nick Gonzales 3B · #3 KG Konnor Griffin SS · #6 BL Brandon Lowe 2B · #5 SH S. Horwitz 1B · #2 MK Mitch Keller P · #23 HD Henry Davis C · #32
Chicago Cubs
IH Ian Happ LF · #8 PC Crow-Armstrong CF · #4 MS Matt Shaw RF · #6 AB Alex Bregman 3B · #3 DS Dansby Swanson SS · #7 NH Nico Hoerner 2B · #2 MB Michael Busch 1B · #29 EC Edward Cabrera P · #30 MB M. Ballesteros C · #25

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreBregman popped out to second, Swanson scored.7th Inning6–4
  2. 💣 Home RunBusch singled to left, Suzuki scored on error and Swanson scored on throwing error by left fielder Reynolds, Busch to second.8th Inning6–6
  3. ScoreKelly singled to center, Kingery scored, Suzuki to second, Happ to third.9th Inning6–7
  4. ScoreSwanson homered to left center (391 feet).3rd Inning5–1
  5. ScoreCruz homered to center (422 feet).1st Inning1–0
  6. ScoreBallesteros homered to center (427 feet).3rd Inning5–2

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Pittsburgh Pirates140010000671
Chicago Cubs0020101217100

Pittsburgh Pirates

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Oneil Cruz CF·1-4411111323.339.400.644
Brandon Lowe 2B·2-4422521218.224.356.571
Bryan Reynolds LF·1-4401000116.259.343.431
Ryan O'Hearn RF·2-4402000114.333.419.549
Nick Yorke 3B·0-3300000114.344.463.438
Marcell Ozuna DH·1-4411000116.070.167.070
Spencer Horwitz 1B·0-3310001219.216.333.243
Billy Cook RF0-000000000.000.000.000
Konnor Griffin SS·0-3310000210.138.235.172
Joey Bart C·0-4400000220.105.190.105

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Bubba Chandler SP·5.153324291-643.8691
Hunter Barco RP1.211121032-216.4332
Justin Lawrence RP1.012122029-169.8229
Jose Urquidy RP0.131110022-123.3822

Chicago Cubs

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner 2B·2-5512000019.316.420.491
Moises Ballesteros C·2-331211018.294.342.471
Miguel Amaya C0-000000109.238.385.429
Michael Conforto RF1-110100004.300.462.400
Scott Kingery 3B0-001000000.000.000.000
Alex Bregman 3B·1-3301201018.213.290.328
Ian Happ LF·0-4400001022.192.300.462
Seiya Suzuki RF·0-3310002125.200.385.200
Carson Kelly C·2-5502100120.308.426.385
Pete Crow-Armstrong CF·0-4400000213.203.242.271
Dansby Swanson SS·1-2231112019.163.311.306
Matt Shaw RF·0-3300000214.220.250.390
Michael Busch 1B1-110110003.135.233.173

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Jameson Taillon SP·6.06662103102-594.86102
Riley Martin RP1.110002019-130.0019
Ethan Roberts RP0.200001013-80.0013
Daniel Palencia RP1.000012016-90.0016

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 9th InningLowe struck out swinging.
  2. 7th InningAmaya walked.
  3. 4th InningBart struck out swinging.
  4. 9th InningPitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging
  5. 7th InningPitch 9 : Ball 4
  6. 4th InningPitch 10 : Strike 3 Swinging

Scoring Plays

  1. 7th InningBregman popped out to second, Swanson scored.6–4
  2. 8th InningBusch singled to left, Suzuki scored on error and Swanson scored on throwing error by left fielder Reynolds, Busch to second.6–6
  3. 9th InningKelly singled to center, Kingery scored, Suzuki to second, Happ to third.6–7
  4. 3rd InningSwanson homered to left center (391 feet).5–1
  5. 1st InningCruz homered to center (422 feet).1–0
  6. 3rd InningBallesteros homered to center (427 feet).5–2
  7. 2nd InningLowe homered to right center (372 feet), Ozuna scored, Horwitz scored and Griffin scored.5–0
  8. 5th InningBregman hit sacrifice fly to left, Hoerner scored.6–3
  9. 5th InningLowe homered to right center (444 feet).6–2

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