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In The Rafters

BOS @ MIN

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM CT⚾ Sonny Gray vs Mick AbelMLB.TVTwins.TVNESN+
Result readMinnesota Twins

Boston Red Sox 0 · Minnesota Twins 6

Final
Boston Red Sox17-23-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 55%
Minnesota Twins18-23-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.5) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeTarget FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans Minnesota Twins because Minnesota Twins owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Boston Red Sox has the recent-form edge. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Boston Red Sox at 67%. Actual: Minnesota Twins by 6.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Boston Red Sox

Minnesota Twins

Injury Report

Minnesota Twins

Cory LewisDay-To-DayGarrett Acton15-Day-ILCole Sands15-Day-ILJulian MerryweatherDay-To-DayCody Laweryson15-Day-IL

Boston Red Sox

Willson ContrerasDay-To-DayKutter Crawford15-Day-ILRoman Anthony10-Day-ILDanny Coulombe15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet15-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Boston Red Sox
JD Jarren Duran LF · #16 CR C. Rafaela CF · #3 WA Wilyer Abreu RF · #52 CD Caleb Durbin 3B · #5 TS Trevor Story SS · #10 MM Marcelo Mayer 2B · #11 WC W. Contreras 1B · #40 BB Brayan Bello P · #66 CN Carlos Narvaez C · #75
Minnesota Twins
AM Austin Martin LF · #16 BB Byron Buxton CF · #25 MW Matt Wallner RF · #38 RL Royce Lewis 3B · #23 BL Brooks Lee SS · #22 LK Luke Keaschall 2B · #15 JB Josh Bell 1B · #56 BO Bailey Ober P · #17 RJ Ryan Jeffers C · #27

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreLarnach singled to right, Gray scored and Buxton scored, Larnach out stretching at second.4th Inning0–5
  2. ScoreKeaschall singled to center, Buxton scored.1st Inning0–1
  3. ScoreBuxton homered to left center (438 feet).6th Inning0–6
  4. ScoreLee homered to right (371 feet).4th Inning0–3
  5. ScoreBuxton homered to left (401 feet).3rd Inning0–2

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Boston Red Sox000000000060
Minnesota Twins10130100—6100

Boston Red Sox

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Roman Anthony LF·2-4402000117.230.338.361
Caleb Durbin 3B·0-3300001013.127.226.164
Masataka Yoshida LF·2-440200008.304.500.391
Willson Contreras 1B·0-1100000110.298.444.491
Andruw Monasterio SS0-220000029.143.294.214
Wilyer Abreu RF·0-4400000112.333.380.561
Trevor Story SS·1-4401000215.192.197.274
Jarren Duran LF·0-4400000113.182.274.291
Carlos Narvaez C·0-4400000417.195.214.195
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B·1-3301000013.133.188.133

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Sonny Gray SP·4.095511293-514.4393
Jack Anderson RP3.011114152-343.0052
Aroldis Chapman RP1.000003022-141.5022

Minnesota Twins

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Byron Buxton CF·4-5544220115.246.306.462
Trevor Larnach LF·1-3301201122.267.421.433
Luke Keaschall 2B·2-4402100019.232.289.304
Josh Bell 1B·0-4400000019.250.361.483
Matt Wallner RF·0-3300001116.200.278.369
Victor Caratini C·0-3300000120.255.365.333
Kody Clemens 1B·1-3301000127.161.297.355
Brooks Lee SS·1-4411110114.240.283.440
Tristan Gray 3B·1-4411000215.269.333.538

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Mick Abel SP·7.0400010090-643.9890
Taylor Rogers RP1.010011022-143.6822
Cole Sands RP1.010001015-134.2615

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 5th InningClemens struck out swinging.
  2. 8th InningClemens hit by pitch.
  3. 8th InningAnthony doubled to left.
  4. 7th InningCaratini grounded out to second.

Scoring Plays

  1. 4th InningLarnach singled to right, Gray scored and Buxton scored, Larnach out stretching at second.0–5
  2. 1st InningKeaschall singled to center, Buxton scored.0–1
  3. 6th InningBuxton homered to left center (438 feet).0–6
  4. 4th InningLee homered to right (371 feet).0–3
  5. 3rd InningBuxton homered to left (401 feet).0–2

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