STL @ HOU
Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameIndoor7:10 PM CT⚾ Kyle Leahy vs Peter LambertESPN UnlmtdMLB.TVCardinals.TV
Result readSt. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 9 · Houston Astros 4
Final
St. Louis Cardinals23-17-1+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.3) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 55%
Houston Astros16-25-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 43% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeDaikin ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Two reasons the projection lands on St. Louis Cardinals: St. Louis Cardinals’s scoring margin profile and St. Louis Cardinals’s recent stretch. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: St. Louis Cardinals at 68%. Actual: St. Louis Cardinals by 5.
Pre-game pick: St. Louis Cardinals at 68%. Actual: St. Louis Cardinals by 5.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
St. Louis Cardinals
- Matthew Liberatore SP · #32
- Andre Pallante SP · #53
- Ivan Herrera C · #48
- JJ Wetherholt 2B · #26
Houston Astros
- Mike Burrows SP · #50
- Lance McCullers Jr. SP · #43
- Kai-Wei Teng RP · #17
- Christian Walker 1B · #8
Injury Report
Houston Astros
Tatsuya Imai15-Day-ILLance McCullers Jr.Day-To-DayWalker JanekDay-To-DayLucas SpenceDay-To-DayYainer Diaz10-Day-IL
St. Louis Cardinals
Matt Pushard15-Day-ILRamon Urias10-Day-ILLars Nootbaar60-Day-ILIxan HendersonDay-To-DayVictor SantosDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreWinn singled to left, Herrera scored and Wetherholt scored, Burleson to third.3–0
- ScoreAltuve homered to left (384 feet).4–3
- ScoreVázquez homered to left (357 feet).3–1
- ScoreHerrera homered to left (383 feet), Wetherholt scored.9–3
- ScoreGorman homered to right (353 feet), Burleson scored and Walker scored.7–3
- ScoreHerrera singled to center, Pagés scored.4–2
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 10 | 2 |
| Houston Astros | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
St. Louis Cardinals
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Wetherholt 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | .232 | .368 | .377 |
| Ivan Herrera C· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .212 | .398 | .348 |
| Alec Burleson 1B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .292 | .388 | .431 |
| Jordan Walker RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | .315 | .375 | .685 |
| Nolan Gorman 3B· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 24 | .207 | .284 | .362 |
| Masyn Winn SS· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | .189 | .328 | .245 |
| Nathan Church LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | .214 | .261 | .310 |
| Pedro Pages C· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | .211 | .262 | .342 |
| Victor Scott II CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | .235 | .273 | .255 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy SP· | 5.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 83-53 | 5.21 | 83 |
| Justin Bruihl RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9-6 | 7.20 | 9 |
| JoJo Romero RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12-9 | 0.00 | 12 |
| Ryne Stanek RP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 29-17 | 8.64 | 29 |
| George Soriano RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12-9 | 2.00 | 12 |
Houston Astros
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Altuve 2B· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | .293 | .404 | .493 |
| Yordan Alvarez LF· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .333 | .479 | .750 |
| Carlos Correa SS· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | .271 | .346 | .386 |
| Christian Walker 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | .278 | .369 | .528 |
| Joey Loperfido LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .276 | .348 | .362 |
| Brice Matthews LF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | .107 | .194 | .250 |
| Cam Smith RF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | .264 | .349 | .458 |
| Taylor Trammell CF· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .300 | .391 | .350 |
| Christian Vazquez C· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | .400 | .438 | .733 |
| Nick Allen SS· | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .250 | .318 | .300 |
| Isaac Paredes 3B | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .200 | .333 | .273 |
| Shay Whitcomb 3B | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | .000 | .250 | .000 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Lambert SP· | 5.0 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 90-62 | 7.20 | 90 |
| Steven Okert RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19-12 | 3.60 | 19 |
| Bryan Abreu RP | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16-8 | 14.73 | 16 |
| J.P. France SP | 2.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 35-23 | 8.10 | 35 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 6th InningPagés flied out to center.
- 6th InningChurch walked.
- 8th InningPagés grounded out to second.
- 6th InningPitch 7 : Ball In Play
- 6th InningPitch 8 : Ball 4
Scoring Plays
- 3rd InningWinn singled to left, Herrera scored and Wetherholt scored, Burleson to third.3–0
- 5th InningAltuve homered to left (384 feet).4–3
- 3rd InningVázquez homered to left (357 feet).3–1
- 8th InningHerrera homered to left (383 feet), Wetherholt scored.9–3
- 7th InningGorman homered to right (353 feet), Burleson scored and Walker scored.7–3
- 4th InningHerrera singled to center, Pagés scored.4–2
- 1st InningWalker singled to center, Wetherholt scored, Burleson to third.1–0
- 8th InningTrammell singled to right, Correa scored, Smith to third.9–4
- 3rd InningAlvarez homered to right (357 feet).3–2