TOR @ ARI
Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameIndoor6:40 PM PT⚾ Braydon Fisher vs Michael SorokaMLB.TVDBACKS.TV
Result readArizona Diamondbacks
Toronto Blue Jays 3 · Arizona Diamondbacks 6
Final
Toronto Blue Jays18-22-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 40%
Arizona Diamondbacks19-20-0.6 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 44% · last 10: 30%
Venue EdgeChase FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Two reasons the projection lands on Arizona Diamondbacks: Toronto Blue Jays’s scoring margin profile and Toronto Blue Jays’s recent stretch. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Toronto Blue Jays at 71%. Actual: Arizona Diamondbacks by 3.
Pre-game pick: Toronto Blue Jays at 71%. Actual: Arizona Diamondbacks by 3.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Toronto Blue Jays
- Kevin Gausman SP · #34
- Dylan Cease SP · #84
- Braydon Fisher RP · #63
- Mason Fluharty RP · #68
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Zac Gallen SP · #23
- Eduardo Rodriguez SP · #57
- Ketel Marte 2B · #4
- Corbin Carroll RF · #7
Injury Report
Arizona Diamondbacks
Carlos Santana10-Day-ILPavin Smith60-Day-ILCristian Mena60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar60-Day-ILA.J. Puk60-Day-IL
Toronto Blue Jays
Javen ColemanDay-To-DayNathan Lukes10-Day-ILCJ StubbsDay-To-DayLazaro Estrada15-Day-ILFernando Perezdevelopmental list
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- 💣 Home RunMarte scored on error, Fernandez safe at first on throwing error by first baseman Guerrero Jr., Carroll safe at third on error.2–4
- ScoreStraw homered to left (385 feet).2–3
- ScoreFernandez singled to center, Marte scored, Carroll to second.1–3
- ScoreArenado homered to left (382 feet).1–1
- 🏃 DoubleTawa doubled to center, McCann scored.3–6
- ScoreGuerrero Jr. singled to center, Heineman scored.3–5
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | — | 6 | 10 | 0 |
Toronto Blue Jays
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Schneider LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .194 | .342 | .355 |
| Nathan Lukes RF | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .094 | .143 | .094 |
| Daulton Varsho CF· | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .262 | .333 | .462 |
| Myles Straw RF | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .400 | .429 | .600 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .319 | .427 | .420 |
| Jesus Sanchez LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | .263 | .313 | .421 |
| Lenyn Sosa 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .273 | .273 | .364 |
| Andres Gimenez SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .290 | .329 | .493 |
| Kazuma Okamoto 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | .188 | .263 | .290 |
| Ernie Clement 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .289 | .299 | .368 |
| Tyler Heineman C· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .304 | .360 | .304 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braydon Fisher RP· | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11-9 | 0.84 | 11 |
| Eric Lauer SP | 5.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 83-60 | 7.13 | 83 |
| Spencer Miles RP | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 29-18 | 3.48 | 29 |
| Joe Mantiply RP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15-11 | 5.40 | 15 |
Arizona Diamondbacks
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte 2B· | 2-5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .224 | .280 | .408 |
| Corbin Carroll RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20 | .308 | .395 | .585 |
| Geraldo Perdomo SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .197 | .304 | .288 |
| Jose Fernandez 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | .302 | .302 | .453 |
| Nolan Arenado 3B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .224 | .232 | .373 |
| Ildemaro Vargas 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .380 | .404 | .640 |
| James McCann C· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .250 | .276 | .357 |
| Tim Tawa LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19 | .114 | .220 | .171 |
| Jorge Barrosa LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .229 | .275 | .417 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Soroka SP· | 7.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 94-67 | 2.78 | 94 |
| Jonathan Loaisiga RP | 1.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15-12 | 4.50 | 15 |
| Paul Sewald RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10-8 | 2.16 | 10 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 8th InningSánchez struck out swinging.
Scoring Plays
- 7th InningMarte scored on error, Fernandez safe at first on throwing error by first baseman Guerrero Jr., Carroll safe at third on error.2–4
- 6th InningStraw homered to left (385 feet).2–3
- 5th InningFernandez singled to center, Marte scored, Carroll to second.1–3
- 4th InningArenado homered to left (382 feet).1–1
- 8th InningTawa doubled to center, McCann scored.3–6
- 8th InningGuerrero Jr. singled to center, Heineman scored.3–5
- 7th InningArenado singled to center, Carroll scored, Fernandez to third.2–5
- 5th InningCarroll singled to center, Barrosa scored, Marte to second.1–2
- 4th InningSosa hit sacrifice bunt to third, Straw scored, Sánchez to second.1–0