ATL @ WSH
Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:45 PM ET54°F · 8 mph wind · partly cloudy⚾ Reynaldo Lopez vs Foster GriffinMLB.TVBravesVisionNationals.TV
Result readWashington Nationals
Atlanta Braves 4 · Washington Nationals 11
Final
Atlanta Braves28-13+2.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.9) · expected win rate 71% · last 10: 60%
Washington Nationals19-22-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeNationals ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Washington Nationals is the model’s call — Atlanta Braves on the margin numbers, Atlanta Braves on the form numbers. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Atlanta Braves at 95%. Actual: Washington Nationals by 7.
Pre-game pick: Atlanta Braves at 95%. Actual: Washington Nationals by 7.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Atlanta Braves
- Bryce Elder SP · #55
- Grant Holmes SP · #66
- Austin Riley 3B · #27
- Drake Baldwin C · #30
Washington Nationals
- Cade Cavalli SP · #24
- Jake Irvin SP · #27
- PJ Poulin RP · #50
- James Wood RF · #29
Injury Report
Washington Nationals
Cole Henry15-Day-ILClayton Beeter15-Day-ILJosiah Gray60-Day-ILTrevor Williams60-Day-ILTyler BaumDay-To-Day
Atlanta Braves
Sean MurphyDay-To-DayDylan Dodd15-Day-ILRonald Acuna Jr.10-Day-ILBlake BurkhalterDay-To-DayEli White7-day il
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreBaldwin homered to center (438 feet).2–4
- ScoreWood homered to left center (412 feet).1–4
- ScoreNuñez singled to center, Young scored, Lile to second, Abrams to third.0–3
- ScoreLile walked, García Jr. scored, Abrams to second, Young to third.0–2
- ScoreYoung singled to center, Wood scored, Young to second, García Jr. to third.0–1
- ScoreYoung grounded out to second, Wood scored, García Jr. to third.3–8
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Washington Nationals | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | — | 11 | 10 | 0 |
Atlanta Braves
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna Jr. RF· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | .242 | .352 | .352 |
| Drake Baldwin C· | 1-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 24 | .310 | .378 | .530 |
| Ozzie Albies 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .280 | .333 | .441 |
| Matt Olson 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .266 | .352 | .564 |
| Austin Riley 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19 | .231 | .320 | .374 |
| Mauricio Dubon SS· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | .313 | .360 | .475 |
| Michael Harris II CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .286 | .329 | .468 |
| Jonah Heim C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .222 | .300 | .333 |
| Eli White CF· | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .208 | .231 | .375 |
| Mike Yastrzemski LF | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | .197 | .288 | .268 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reynaldo Lopez SP· | 1.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 58-30 | 3.74 | 58 |
| Jose Suarez RP | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 59-35 | 5.02 | 59 |
| Dylan Dodd RP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 17-12 | 2.25 | 17 |
| Aaron Bummer RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10-9 | 4.05 | 10 |
| Ian Hamilton RP | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 31-18 | 27.00 | 31 |
| Joel Payamps RP | 1.0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 26-12 | 8.44 | 26 |
Washington Nationals
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Wood RF· | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 30 | .242 | .390 | .558 |
| Luis Garcia Jr. 1B· | 4-5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | .247 | .284 | .364 |
| Jacob Young CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | .254 | .293 | .394 |
| CJ Abrams SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21 | .296 | .420 | .556 |
| Daylen Lile LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 23 | .276 | .330 | .398 |
| Nasim Nunez 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 22 | .181 | .280 | .194 |
| Jorbit Vivas 3B· | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | .302 | .426 | .349 |
| Brady House 3B | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | .241 | .290 | .356 |
| Jose Tena 2B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .308 | .357 | .333 |
| Curtis Mead 1B | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 16 | .217 | .294 | .478 |
| Drew Millas C· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25 | .171 | .244 | .220 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foster Griffin SP· | 6.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 96-65 | 3.38 | 96 |
| Gus Varland RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13-10 | 3.12 | 13 |
| Cionel Perez RP | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25-12 | 6.17 | 25 |
| Clayton Beeter RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19-11 | 3.48 | 19 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 4th InningWood walked.
- 8th InningHouse walked.
- 4th InningPitch 11 : Ball 4
- 8th InningPitch 6 : Ball 4
- 5th InningMead struck out swinging.
- 4th InningPitch 10 : Ball 3
Scoring Plays
- 3rd InningBaldwin homered to center (438 feet).2–4
- 2nd InningWood homered to left center (412 feet).1–4
- 1st InningNuñez singled to center, Young scored, Lile to second, Abrams to third.0–3
- 1st InningLile walked, García Jr. scored, Abrams to second, Young to third.0–2
- 1st InningYoung singled to center, Wood scored, Young to second, García Jr. to third.0–1
- 7th InningYoung grounded out to second, Wood scored, García Jr. to third.3–8
- 5th InningGarcía Jr. singled to center, House scored, Wood to second.3–5
- 8th InningRiley grounded out to shortstop, Baldwin scored, Olson to second.4–8
- 8th InningMead homered to left (395 feet), Nuñez scored and House scored.4–11
- 5th InningWhite homered to right (348 feet).3–4
- 2nd InningHarris II doubled to right, Dubón scored.1–3
- 7th InningGarcía Jr. doubled to center, Mead scored and Millas scored, Wood to third.3–7