MIN @ NYM
Citi Field · Queens, New York
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor7:10 PM ET46°F · 11 mph wind · overcast⚾ Simeon Woods Richardson vs Nolan McLeanMLB.TVTwins.TV
Result readMinnesota Twins
Minnesota Twins 5 · New York Mets 3
Final
Minnesota Twins18-23-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.5) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 50%
New York Mets15-25-2-0.7 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeCiti FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Minnesota Twins is the model’s call — Minnesota Twins on the margin numbers, New York Mets on the form numbers. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: New York Mets at 59%. Actual: Minnesota Twins by 2.
Pre-game pick: New York Mets at 59%. Actual: Minnesota Twins by 2.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Minnesota Twins
- Bailey Ober SP · #17
- Joe Ryan SP · #41
- Josh Bell 1B · #56
- Luke Keaschall 2B · #15
New York Mets
- Freddy Peralta SP · #51
- Clay Holmes SP · #35
- Tobias Myers RP · #32
- Bo Bichette 3B · #19
Injury Report
New York Mets
Nate LavenderDay-To-DayNick BurdiDay-To-DayGrae KessingerOutJose RojasDay-To-DayA.J. Minter15-Day-IL
Minnesota Twins
Cory LewisDay-To-DayGarrett Acton15-Day-ILCole Sands15-Day-ILJulian MerryweatherDay-To-DayCody Laweryson15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreWallner walked, Jeffers scored, Keaschall to second, Clemens to third.5–3
- ScoreLindor homered to right (410 feet), Benge scored and Semien scored.0–3
- ScoreBuxton homered to left (374 feet), Wallner scored.2–3
- ScoreKeaschall singled to left, Outman scored, Clemens to second, Jeffers to third.4–3
- ScoreKeaschall singled to center, Clemens scored.3–3
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| New York Mets | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Minnesota Twins
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton CF· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 23 | .233 | .295 | .430 |
| Trevor Larnach LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .263 | .451 | .395 |
| Austin Martin LF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .311 | .484 | .444 |
| Josh Bell 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | .253 | .348 | .430 |
| James Outman CF | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .091 | .167 | .136 |
| Ryan Jeffers C· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21 | .263 | .382 | .439 |
| Kody Clemens 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .167 | .271 | .333 |
| Luke Keaschall 2B· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .222 | .268 | .289 |
| Matt Wallner RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | .187 | .282 | .333 |
| Royce Lewis 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | .200 | .347 | .400 |
| Brooks Lee SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 19 | .206 | .270 | .353 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simeon Woods Richardson SP· | 5.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 95-56 | 5.96 | 95 |
| Anthony Banda RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18-13 | 9.31 | 18 |
| Justin Topa RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17-11 | 3.97 | 17 |
| Cole Sands RP | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 23-17 | 3.48 | 23 |
New York Mets
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Semien 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | .225 | .292 | .300 |
| Francisco Lindor SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 22 | .209 | .301 | .341 |
| Luis Robert Jr. CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .243 | .349 | .351 |
| Bo Bichette 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .219 | .255 | .281 |
| MJ Melendez LF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .313 | .389 | .625 |
| Luis Torrens C | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | .240 | .240 | .320 |
| Francisco Alvarez C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | .250 | .357 | .467 |
| Brett Baty RF· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .209 | .214 | .284 |
| Tyrone Taylor RF | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | .200 | .226 | .333 |
| Mark Vientos 1B· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | .232 | .267 | .375 |
| Carson Benge LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .136 | .219 | .197 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan McLean SP· | 6.2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 99-63 | 2.67 | 99 |
| Huascar Brazoban RP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16-10 | 0.00 | 16 |
| Devin Williams RP | 0.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21-9 | 9.95 | 21 |
| Austin Warren RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12-9 | 5.40 | 12 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 9th InningTorrens struck out swinging.
- 9th InningJeffers walked.
- 8th InningLindor struck out swinging.
- 9th InningPitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging
- 9th InningWallner walked, Jeffers scored, Keaschall to second, Clemens to third.5–3
Scoring Plays
- 9th InningWallner walked, Jeffers scored, Keaschall to second, Clemens to third.5–3
- 3rd InningLindor homered to right (410 feet), Benge scored and Semien scored.0–3
- 6th InningBuxton homered to left (374 feet), Wallner scored.2–3
- 9th InningKeaschall singled to left, Outman scored, Clemens to second, Jeffers to third.4–3
- 7th InningKeaschall singled to center, Clemens scored.3–3