CHC @ SD
Petco Park · San Diego, California
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM PT58°F · 2 mph wind · mostly clear⚾ Matthew Boyd vs Randy VasquezMLB.TVPadres.TV
Result readSan Diego Padres
Chicago Cubs 7 · San Diego Padres 9
Final
Chicago Cubs27-14-1+1.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.0) · expected win rate 61% · last 10: 80%
San Diego Padres24-16+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj -0.2) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgePetco ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
San Diego Padres is the model’s call — Chicago Cubs on the margin numbers, Chicago Cubs on the form numbers. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 85%. Actual: San Diego Padres by 2.
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 85%. Actual: San Diego Padres by 2.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Chicago Cubs
- Edward Cabrera SP · #30
- Jameson Taillon SP · #50
- Alex Bregman 3B · #3
- Nico Hoerner 2B · #2
San Diego Padres
- Yu Darvish SP · #11
- German Marquez SP · #33
- Fernando Tatis Jr. RF · #23
- Jackson Merrill CF · #3
Injury Report
San Diego Padres
Jake Cronenworth7-day ilGerman Marquez15-Day-ILBlake HuntDay-To-DayJhony Brito60-Day-ILLuis Campusano10-Day-IL
Chicago Cubs
Jeff BrighamDay-To-DayJaxon WigginsDay-To-DayJordan Wicks15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreCastellanos singled to center, Machado scored and France scored, Castellanos to second.5–6
- ScoreFrance hit a ground rule double, Merrill scored and Machado scored, Andujar to third.0–3
- ScoreSuzuki homered to left center (396 feet).1–3
- 🏃 TripleFrance tripled to left, Bogaerts scored and Andujar scored.5–8
- ScoreAndujar grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Machado scored, Bogaerts out at second.5–4
- ScoreSwanson scored on Miller wild pitch, Hoerner to second on wild pitch by Miller.7–9
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 0 |
| San Diego Padres | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | — | 9 | 14 | 0 |
Chicago Cubs
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | .297 | .375 | .458 |
| Michael Busch 1B· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 24 | .204 | .287 | .296 |
| Alex Bregman 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | .244 | .331 | .361 |
| Ian Happ LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | .236 | .347 | .472 |
| Seiya Suzuki RF· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .317 | .419 | .571 |
| Moises Ballesteros C· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | .387 | .435 | .710 |
| Michael Conforto RF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .308 | .441 | .423 |
| Matt Shaw RF | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .292 | .338 | .462 |
| Dansby Swanson SS· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .206 | .339 | .423 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 23 | .241 | .305 | .315 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Boyd SP· | 4.0 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 91-56 | 7.00 | 91 |
| Ben Brown RP | 2.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 43-25 | 2.14 | 43 |
| Phil Maton RP | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 28-20 | 14.40 | 28 |
| Jacob Webb RP | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15-11 | 5.06 | 15 |
San Diego Padres
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramon Laureano LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 25 | .255 | .322 | .451 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. RF· | 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .257 | .336 | .295 |
| Jackson Merrill CF· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 23 | .213 | .280 | .352 |
| Manny Machado 3B· | 3-4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .232 | .342 | .400 |
| Gavin Sheets 1B | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .238 | .273 | .488 |
| Xander Bogaerts SS· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | .284 | .360 | .422 |
| Miguel Andujar 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | .313 | .353 | .438 |
| Ty France 1B· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | .297 | .350 | .649 |
| Nick Castellanos RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23 | .154 | .200 | .212 |
| Jake Cronenworth 2B | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .155 | .283 | .214 |
| Freddy Fermin C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | .170 | .293 | .234 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Vasquez SP· | 5.0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 106-71 | 2.94 | 106 |
| Adrian Morejon RP | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 27-19 | 5.28 | 27 |
| Jason Adam RP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17-13 | 1.29 | 17 |
| Mason Miller RP | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21-15 | 1.26 | 21 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 7th InningCastellanos struck out looking.
- 6th InningLaureano flied out to left.
- 6th InningBallesteros grounded out to shortstop.
- 7th InningPitch 10 : Strike 3 Looking
- 7th InningCrow-Armstrong walked.
Scoring Plays
- 5th InningCastellanos singled to center, Machado scored and France scored, Castellanos to second.5–6
- 1st InningFrance hit a ground rule double, Merrill scored and Machado scored, Andujar to third.0–3
- 2nd InningSuzuki homered to left center (396 feet).1–3
- 7th InningFrance tripled to left, Bogaerts scored and Andujar scored.5–8
- 3rd InningAndujar grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Machado scored, Bogaerts out at second.5–4
- 9th InningSwanson scored on Miller wild pitch, Hoerner to second on wild pitch by Miller.7–9
- 8th InningSheets homered to right (422 feet).5–9
- 9th InningSwanson scored on Miller wild pitch, Hoerner to second on wild pitch by Miller.7–9
- 9th InningHoerner grounded into fielder's choice to second, Shaw scored, Crow-Armstrong out at second, Swanson to third.6–9
- 1st InningMerrill singled to right, Laureano scored.0–1
- 3rd InningBallesteros homered to right (404 feet), Bregman scored, Happ scored and Suzuki scored.5–3