CHC @ SD
Petco Park · San Diego, California
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM PT58°F · overcast⚾ Edward Cabrera vs Walker BuehlerMLB.TVPadres.TV
Result readChicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 8 · San Diego Padres 3
Final
Chicago Cubs27-14-1+1.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.0) · expected win rate 61% · last 10: 80%
San Diego Padres24-16+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj -0.2) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgePetco ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans Chicago Cubs because Chicago Cubs owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Chicago Cubs has the recent-form edge. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 81%. Actual: Chicago Cubs by 5.
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 81%. Actual: Chicago Cubs by 5.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Chicago Cubs
- Edward Cabrera SP · #30
- Jameson Taillon SP · #50
- Alex Bregman 3B · #3
- Nico Hoerner 2B · #2
San Diego Padres
- Yu Darvish SP · #11
- German Marquez SP · #33
- Fernando Tatis Jr. RF · #23
- Jackson Merrill CF · #3
Injury Report
San Diego Padres
Jake Cronenworth7-day ilGerman Marquez15-Day-ILBlake HuntDay-To-DayJhony Brito60-Day-ILLuis Campusano10-Day-IL
Chicago Cubs
Jeff BrighamDay-To-DayJaxon WigginsDay-To-DayJordan Wicks15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreFrance singled to center, Bogaerts scored.2–2
- ScoreCampusano singled to left, France scored, Sheets to third.4–3
- ScoreCrow-Armstrong homered to center (410 feet), Kelly scored and Bregman scored.8–3
- ScoreBregman singled to right, Suzuki scored, Kelly to second.5–3
- ScoreBogaerts homered to left (389 feet).2–1
- 🏃 DoubleSwanson doubled to center, Busch scored and Happ scored.2–0
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
Chicago Cubs
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner 2B· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | .293 | .369 | .455 |
| Moises Ballesteros C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .364 | .419 | .667 |
| Seiya Suzuki RF· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 26 | .328 | .430 | .567 |
| Ian Happ LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19 | .229 | .349 | .459 |
| Michael Busch 1B· | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 23 | .200 | .299 | .291 |
| Carson Kelly C· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 24 | .307 | .409 | .440 |
| Dansby Swanson SS· | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .214 | .344 | .439 |
| Nicky Lopez 3B | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Alex Bregman 3B | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .256 | .341 | .372 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 19 | .241 | .309 | .339 |
| Matt Shaw RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | .275 | .320 | .435 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edward Cabrera SP· | 5.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 99-66 | 3.06 | 99 |
| Hoby Milner RP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22-16 | 2.45 | 22 |
| Ryan Rolison RP | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 22-15 | 0.00 | 22 |
San Diego Padres
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramon Laureano LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | .255 | .319 | .443 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | .248 | .325 | .284 |
| Jackson Merrill CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .205 | .270 | .339 |
| Xander Bogaerts SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 19 | .286 | .364 | .448 |
| Ty France 1B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | .317 | .364 | .634 |
| Gavin Sheets 1B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | .233 | .275 | .477 |
| Nick Castellanos RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .151 | .196 | .208 |
| Luis Campusano C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | .341 | .383 | .705 |
| Bryce Johnson RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .250 | .286 | .350 |
| Jake Cronenworth 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | .149 | .275 | .207 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehler SP· | 4.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 92-48 | 5.40 | 92 |
| Kyle Hart RP | 0.2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14-8 | 5.87 | 14 |
| David Morgan RP | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20-12 | 6.08 | 20 |
| Wandy Peralta RP | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 26-15 | 4.05 | 26 |
| Ron Marinaccio RP | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 30-18 | 5.40 | 30 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 7th InningCronenworth grounded out to second.
- 7th InningPitch 11 : Ball In Play
- 7th InningPitch 10 : Ball 3
- 7th InningPitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul
- 7th InningPitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul
Scoring Plays
- 4th InningFrance singled to center, Bogaerts scored.2–2
- 6th InningCampusano singled to left, France scored, Sheets to third.4–3
- 7th InningCrow-Armstrong homered to center (410 feet), Kelly scored and Bregman scored.8–3
- 7th InningBregman singled to right, Suzuki scored, Kelly to second.5–3
- 2nd InningBogaerts homered to left (389 feet).2–1
- 2nd InningSwanson doubled to center, Busch scored and Happ scored.2–0
- 6th InningHoerner doubled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored and Lopez scored.4–2