HOU @ BAL
Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:35 PM ET⚾ Kai-Wei Teng vs Shane BazMLB.TV
Result readBaltimore Orioles
Houston Astros 3 · Baltimore Orioles 5
Final
Houston Astros16-25-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 43% · last 10: 50%
Baltimore Orioles18-23-1-1.0 net/g (SOS-adj -1.1) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 30%
Venue EdgeOriole Park at Camden YardsHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans Baltimore Orioles because Houston Astros owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Houston Astros has the recent-form edge. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Houston Astros at 78%. Actual: Baltimore Orioles by 2.
Pre-game pick: Houston Astros at 78%. Actual: Baltimore Orioles by 2.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Houston Astros
- Mike Burrows SP · #50
- Lance McCullers Jr. SP · #43
- Kai-Wei Teng RP · #17
- Christian Walker 1B · #8
Baltimore Orioles
- Chris Bassitt SP · #40
- Kyle Bradish SP · #38
- Gunnar Henderson SS · #2
- Pete Alonso 1B · #25
Injury Report
Baltimore Orioles
Will RobertsonDay-To-DayTrevor Rogers15-Day-ILKeagan GilliesDay-To-DayJackson Holliday10-Day-ILLuis VazquezDay-To-Day
Houston Astros
Tatsuya Imai15-Day-ILLance McCullers Jr.Day-To-DayWalker JanekDay-To-DayLucas SpenceDay-To-DayYainer Diaz10-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreRutschman singled to left, Henderson scored.0–1
- ScoreRutschman singled to center, Henderson scored.1–5
- 🏃 TripleHarris tripled to right, Walker scored.2–5
- ScoreMatthews homered to right center (387 feet).1–2
- ScoreAlonso homered to right center (380 feet), Ward scored.1–4
- 🏃 DoubleBasallo doubled to right, Rutschman scored.0–2
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — | 5 | 9 | 0 |
Houston Astros
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa SS· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | .277 | .368 | .406 |
| Yordan Alvarez LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .355 | .463 | .736 |
| Isaac Paredes 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 27 | .222 | .320 | .367 |
| Jose Altuve 2B· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | .248 | .344 | .394 |
| Christian Walker 1B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .299 | .377 | .579 |
| Yainer Diaz C· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .229 | .250 | .349 |
| Dustin Harris LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .063 | .211 | .188 |
| Cam Smith RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | .218 | .314 | .356 |
| Brice Matthews LF· | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .188 | .264 | .396 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai-Wei Teng RP· | 3.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 42-30 | 2.75 | 42 |
| Steven Okert RP | 0.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10-6 | 2.70 | 10 |
| Ryan Weiss RP | 3.2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 54-36 | 6.65 | 54 |
| Bennett Sousa RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 13-9 | 13.50 | 13 |
Baltimore Orioles
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Henderson SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | .213 | .287 | .492 |
| Taylor Ward LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22 | .313 | .426 | .455 |
| Adley Rutschman C· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .345 | .400 | .618 |
| Pete Alonso 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .198 | .299 | .360 |
| Samuel Basallo C· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .247 | .333 | .468 |
| Leody Taveras CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .286 | .392 | .429 |
| Dylan Beavers RF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .236 | .300 | .361 |
| Tyler O'Neill RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | .211 | .302 | .289 |
| Coby Mayo 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | .181 | .263 | .347 |
| Blaze Alexander 3B | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .172 | .238 | .190 |
| Jeremiah Jackson 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | .272 | .292 | .457 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Baz SP· | 5.2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 98-65 | 4.50 | 98 |
| Rico Garcia RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5-3 | 0.68 | 5 |
| Andrew Kittredge RP | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 22-14 | 0.00 | 22 |
| Anthony Nunez RP | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19-14 | 2.51 | 19 |
| Ryan Helsley RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12-8 | 2.53 | 12 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 7th InningWard struck out swinging, Henderson stole second.
- 7th InningHenderson walked.
- 5th InningCorrea grounded out to shortstop.
- 7th InningPitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging
Scoring Plays
- 1st InningRutschman singled to left, Henderson scored.0–1
- 7th InningRutschman singled to center, Henderson scored.1–5
- 8th InningHarris tripled to right, Walker scored.2–5
- 5th InningMatthews homered to right center (387 feet).1–2
- 5th InningAlonso homered to right center (380 feet), Ward scored.1–4
- 1st InningBasallo doubled to right, Rutschman scored.0–2
- 8th InningMatthews singled to right, Harris scored.3–5