CHC @ SD
Petco Park · San Diego, California
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameOutdoor1:10 PM PT62°F · 2 mph wind · overcast⚾ Jameson Taillon vs Matt WaldronMLB.TVPadres.TV
Result readChicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 5 · San Diego Padres 4
Final
Chicago Cubs27-14-1+1.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.0) · expected win rate 61% · last 10: 80%
San Diego Padres24-16+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj -0.2) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgePetco ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Chicago Cubs gets the model’s nod thanks to Chicago Cubs’s margin advantage, with Chicago Cubs’s recent run providing the second tip. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 84%. Actual: Chicago Cubs by 1.
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 84%. Actual: Chicago Cubs by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Chicago Cubs
- Edward Cabrera SP · #30
- Jameson Taillon SP · #50
- Alex Bregman 3B · #3
- Nico Hoerner 2B · #2
San Diego Padres
- Yu Darvish SP · #11
- German Marquez SP · #33
- Fernando Tatis Jr. RF · #23
- Jackson Merrill CF · #3
Injury Report
San Diego Padres
Jake Cronenworth7-day ilGerman Marquez15-Day-ILBlake HuntDay-To-DayJhony Brito60-Day-ILLuis Campusano10-Day-IL
Chicago Cubs
Jeff BrighamDay-To-DayJaxon WigginsDay-To-DayJordan Wicks15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreAmaya singled to center, Conforto scored.1–0
- ScoreShaw homered to left (351 feet).5–3
- ScoreCrow-Armstrong grounded out to first, Conforto scored, Shaw to third.4–3
- ScoreTatis Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Castellanos scored, Johnson to third.5–4
- ScoreAndujar homered to left (387 feet).3–1
- ScoreCastellanos homered to left center (405 feet), Cronenworth scored.3–3
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Chicago Cubs
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | .291 | .370 | .449 |
| Moises Ballesteros C· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | .338 | .392 | .620 |
| Alex Bregman 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20 | .258 | .350 | .371 |
| Ian Happ LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 22 | .230 | .351 | .460 |
| Michael Busch 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23 | .193 | .295 | .281 |
| Michael Conforto RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .300 | .421 | .433 |
| Matt Shaw RF· | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .301 | .342 | .507 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .241 | .307 | .362 |
| Miguel Amaya C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23 | .240 | .356 | .380 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Taillon SP· | 7.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 95-66 | 4.41 | 95 |
| Corbin Martin RP | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19-7 | 2.25 | 19 |
| Ben Brown RP | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11-7 | 1.99 | 11 |
| Hoby Milner RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3-3 | 2.40 | 3 |
San Diego Padres
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill CF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | .200 | .270 | .330 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .250 | .323 | .286 |
| Manny Machado 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | .222 | .331 | .384 |
| Xander Bogaerts SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .275 | .352 | .431 |
| Ty France 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .289 | .333 | .578 |
| Miguel Andujar 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .313 | .352 | .478 |
| Gavin Sheets 1B | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .233 | .275 | .477 |
| Ramon Laureano LF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | .252 | .317 | .439 |
| Jake Cronenworth 2B· | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | .146 | .276 | .202 |
| Nick Castellanos RF· | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | .164 | .220 | .273 |
| Freddy Fermin C | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .170 | .293 | .234 |
| Luis Campusano C· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18 | .326 | .380 | .674 |
| Bryce Johnson RF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .286 | .350 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Waldron SP· | 5.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 83-56 | 9.88 | 83 |
| Adrian Morejon RP | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16-10 | 5.63 | 16 |
| Bradgley Rodriguez RP | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22-13 | 1.88 | 22 |
| Jason Adam RP | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 25-14 | 2.25 | 25 |
| Mason Miller RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19-9 | 1.17 | 19 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 6th InningMachado grounded out to shortstop.
- 6th InningPitch 9 : Ball In Play
- 2nd InningAmaya singled to center, Conforto scored.1–0
- 9th InningBallesteros grounded out to third.
- 6th InningPitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul
- 2nd InningPitch 10 : Ball In Play
- 9th InningHapp struck out looking.
Scoring Plays
- 2nd InningAmaya singled to center, Conforto scored.1–0
- 8th InningShaw homered to left (351 feet).5–3
- 6th InningCrow-Armstrong grounded out to first, Conforto scored, Shaw to third.4–3
- 8th InningTatis Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Castellanos scored, Johnson to third.5–4
- 5th InningAndujar homered to left (387 feet).3–1
- 5th InningCastellanos homered to left center (405 feet), Cronenworth scored.3–3
- 4th InningCrow-Armstrong homered to right (357 feet), Shaw scored.3–0