TOR @ MIN
Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM CT⚾ Kevin Gausman vs Bailey OberMLB.TVTwins.TV
Result readMinnesota Twins
Toronto Blue Jays 1 · Minnesota Twins 7
Final
Toronto Blue Jays18-22-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 40%
Minnesota Twins18-23-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.5) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeTarget FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Two reasons the projection lands on Minnesota Twins: Minnesota Twins’s scoring margin profile and Minnesota Twins’s recent stretch. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Toronto Blue Jays at 82%. Actual: Minnesota Twins by 6.
Pre-game pick: Toronto Blue Jays at 82%. Actual: Minnesota Twins by 6.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Toronto Blue Jays
- Kevin Gausman SP · #34
- Dylan Cease SP · #84
- Braydon Fisher RP · #63
- Mason Fluharty RP · #68
Minnesota Twins
- Bailey Ober SP · #17
- Joe Ryan SP · #41
- Josh Bell 1B · #56
- Luke Keaschall 2B · #15
Injury Report
Minnesota Twins
Cory LewisDay-To-DayGarrett Acton15-Day-ILCole Sands15-Day-ILJulian MerryweatherDay-To-DayCody Laweryson15-Day-IL
Toronto Blue Jays
Javen ColemanDay-To-DayNathan Lukes10-Day-ILCJ StubbsDay-To-DayLazaro Estrada15-Day-ILFernando Perezdevelopmental list
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreJeffers homered to left center (404 feet), Larnach scored.1–2
- ScoreMartin singled to center, Larnach scored.1–4
- ScoreKeaschall hit sacrifice fly to left, Bell scored.1–7
- ScoreVarsho homered to right (397 feet).1–0
- 💣 Home RunBell singled to left, Buxton scored on error and Jeffers scored on throwing error by shortstop Giménez.1–6
- ScoreBuxton homered to left center (375 feet).1–3
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | — | 7 | 7 | 0 |
Toronto Blue Jays
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Springer DH· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .217 | .309 | .383 |
| Jesus Sanchez LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | .253 | .297 | .429 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .354 | .438 | .469 |
| Kazuma Okamoto 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | .218 | .301 | .373 |
| Daulton Varsho CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .235 | .312 | .408 |
| Ernie Clement 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | .302 | .323 | .429 |
| Yohendrick Pinango LF· | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | .333 | .429 | .333 |
| Davis Schneider LF | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .125 | .311 | .229 |
| Andres Gimenez SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | .267 | .291 | .429 |
| Brandon Valenzuela C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .200 | .238 | .350 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Gausman SP· | 5.2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 94-58 | 3.10 | 94 |
| Tommy Nance RP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 18-14 | 5.14 | 18 |
| Mason Fluharty RP | 0.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 27-14 | 7.36 | 27 |
| Joe Mantiply RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5-2 | 3.09 | 5 |
Minnesota Twins
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton CF· | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .252 | .306 | .504 |
| Trevor Larnach LF· | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 16 | .269 | .424 | .403 |
| James Outman CF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .111 | .172 | .185 |
| Ryan Jeffers C· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .304 | .421 | .506 |
| Josh Bell 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | .225 | .315 | .351 |
| Austin Martin LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | .313 | .477 | .422 |
| Kody Clemens 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 24 | .197 | .296 | .366 |
| Luke Keaschall 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .217 | .267 | .275 |
| Brooks Lee SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .242 | .306 | .414 |
| Royce Lewis 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .197 | .303 | .364 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Ober SP· | 6.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 88-57 | 3.55 | 88 |
| Anthony Banda RP | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14-8 | 7.62 | 14 |
| Andrew Morris RP | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19-13 | 6.35 | 19 |
| Justin Topa RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12-8 | 3.29 | 12 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 9th InningClement walked.
- 9th InningPitch 8 : Ball 4
- 9th InningPitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul
- 7th InningSchneider fouled out to first.
Scoring Plays
- 4th InningJeffers homered to left center (404 feet), Larnach scored.1–2
- 6th InningMartin singled to center, Larnach scored.1–4
- 8th InningKeaschall hit sacrifice fly to left, Bell scored.1–7
- 4th InningVarsho homered to right (397 feet).1–0
- 8th InningBell singled to left, Buxton scored on error and Jeffers scored on throwing error by shortstop Giménez.1–6
- 6th InningBuxton homered to left center (375 feet).1–3