TOR @ TB
Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameIndoor1:10 PM ET⚾ Patrick Corbin vs Shane McClanahanMLB.TVRays.TV
Result readTampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays 0 · Tampa Bay Rays 3
Final
Toronto Blue Jays18-22-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 40%
Tampa Bay Rays26-13-1+0.5 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 56% · last 10: 85%
Venue EdgeTropicana FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans Tampa Bay Rays because Tampa Bay Rays owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Tampa Bay Rays has the recent-form edge. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Tampa Bay Rays at 62%. Actual: Tampa Bay Rays by 3.
Pre-game pick: Tampa Bay Rays at 62%. Actual: Tampa Bay Rays by 3.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Toronto Blue Jays
- Kevin Gausman SP · #34
- Dylan Cease SP · #84
- Braydon Fisher RP · #63
- Mason Fluharty RP · #68
Tampa Bay Rays
- Drew Rasmussen SP · #57
- Nick Martinez SP · #28
- Cole Sulser RP · #71
- Griffin Jax RP · #22
Injury Report
Tampa Bay Rays
Ty JohnsonDay-To-DayJohn RooneyDay-To-DayGavin Lux10-Day-ILTJ NicholsDay-To-DayAustin VernonDay-To-Day
Toronto Blue Jays
Javen ColemanDay-To-DayNathan Lukes10-Day-ILCJ StubbsDay-To-DayLazaro Estrada15-Day-ILFernando Perezdevelopmental list
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- 💣 Home RunDeLuca grounded into fielder's choice to second, Mullins scored on throwing error by second baseman Clement, Aranda out at second.0–3
- ScoreSimpson singled to right, DeLuca scored.0–2
- 🏃 DoubleDeLuca doubled to center, Aranda scored.0–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Toronto Blue Jays
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Springer DH· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .189 | .286 | .324 |
| Kazuma Okamoto 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19 | .246 | .331 | .493 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .319 | .403 | .415 |
| Lenyn Sosa 2B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .255 | .250 | .383 |
| Daulton Varsho CF | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .242 | .316 | .400 |
| Ernie Clement 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .281 | .305 | .390 |
| Davis Schneider LF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | .132 | .313 | .245 |
| Andres Gimenez SS | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .264 | .291 | .405 |
| Myles Straw RF· | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .310 | .379 | .466 |
| Yohendrick Pinango LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .400 | .423 | .440 |
| Tyler Heineman C· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .170 | .214 | .170 |
| Jesus Sanchez LF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .239 | .276 | .381 |
| Brandon Valenzuela C | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .259 | .380 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin SP· | 5.1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 61-37 | 3.60 | 61 |
| Braydon Fisher RP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 23-14 | 2.75 | 23 |
| Louis Varland RP | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22-12 | 0.48 | 22 |
| Mason Fluharty RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11-8 | 6.39 | 11 |
Tampa Bay Rays
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Diaz 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .318 | .401 | .473 |
| Ryan Vilade RF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | .273 | .333 | .386 |
| Cedric Mullins CF | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .139 | .197 | .231 |
| Junior Caminero 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .252 | .342 | .474 |
| Jonathan Aranda 1B· | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | .273 | .377 | .477 |
| Jonny DeLuca RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .273 | .300 | .442 |
| Ben Williamson 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | .258 | .327 | .330 |
| Chandler Simpson LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | .303 | .331 | .338 |
| Nick Fortes C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .267 | .305 | .356 |
| Taylor Walls SS· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .205 | .310 | .247 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane McClanahan SP· | 5.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 69-47 | 2.60 | 69 |
| Kevin Kelly RP | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14-11 | 3.45 | 14 |
| Garrett Cleavinger RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5-3 | 4.91 | 5 |
| Bryan Baker RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17-11 | 2.45 | 17 |
| Ian Seymour RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11-9 | 5.09 | 11 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 8th InningSimpson flied out to center.
- 8th InningPitch 11 : Ball In Play
- 8th InningPitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul
- 8th InningSánchez struck out swinging.
- 8th InningPitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul
- 8th InningPitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging
Scoring Plays
- 8th InningDeLuca grounded into fielder's choice to second, Mullins scored on throwing error by second baseman Clement, Aranda out at second.0–3
- 4th InningSimpson singled to right, DeLuca scored.0–2
- 4th InningDeLuca doubled to center, Aranda scored.0–1