Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor1:40 PM ET67°F · 8 mph wind · overcastMLB.TVReds.TV
Model pickHouston Astros

Houston Astros 5.4 · Cincinnati Reds 3.8

68%confidence
Houston Astros16-23-1-0.7 net/g (SOS-adj -0.7) · expected win rate 44% · last 10: 55%
Cincinnati Reds20-19-1.0 net/g (SOS-adj -1.0) · expected win rate 40% · last 10: 10%
Venue EdgeGreat American Ball ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Two reasons the projection lands on Houston Astros: Houston Astros’s scoring margin profile and Houston Astros’s recent stretch. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. Houston Astros is 55% over their recent sample; Cincinnati Reds is 10%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
  • Pitching matchup. TBD (Houston Astros) vs. Andrew Abbott (Cincinnati Reds).

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Injury Report

Cincinnati Reds

Caleb Ferguson15-Day-ILJosh StaumontDay-To-DayRhett LowderDay-To-DayEugenio Suarez10-Day-ILConnor BurnsDay-To-Day

Houston Astros

Lucas SpenceDay-To-DayTatsuya Imai15-Day-ILNate Pearson15-Day-ILLance McCullers Jr.Day-To-DayWalker JanekDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

Recent Form

Cincinnati Reds

  • L@ CHC5-4
  • L@ CHC3-2 F/10
  • L@ CHC7-6 F/10
  • L@ CHC8-3
  • Lvs HOU10-0

Houston Astros

  • W@ BOS3-1 F/10
  • Lvs LAD8-3
  • Wvs LAD2-1
  • Lvs LAD12-2
  • W@ CIN10-0

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