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Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor1:05 PM ET
Model pickPhiladelphia Phillies

Miami Marlins 4.2 · Philadelphia Phillies 4.5

61%confidence
Miami Marlins19-23-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj -0.0) · expected win rate 48% · last 10: 40%
Philadelphia Phillies20-22-1-0.7 net/g (SOS-adj -0.6) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 70%
Venue EdgeCitizens Bank ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Pick goes to Philadelphia Phillies on the back of Miami Marlins’s margin work and Philadelphia Phillies’s last-ten momentum. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. Philadelphia Phillies is 70% over their recent sample; Miami Marlins is 40%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Miami Marlins

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

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