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Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor1:35 PM ET
Model pickToronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays 4.2 · Boston Red Sox 4.1

53%confidence
Toronto Blue Jays18-23-1-0.4 net/g (SOS-adj -0.4) · expected win rate 46% · last 10: 40%
Boston Red Sox17-24-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 46% · last 10: 45%
Venue EdgeFenway ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans Toronto Blue Jays because Boston Red Sox owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Boston Red Sox has the recent-form edge. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

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