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Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor6:45 PM CT
Model pickSt. Louis Cardinals

Arizona Diamondbacks 3.9 · St. Louis Cardinals 5.1

68%confidence
Arizona Diamondbacks19-20-0.6 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 44% · last 10: 30%
St. Louis Cardinals23-17-1+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.3) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeBusch StadiumHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

St. Louis Cardinals gets the model’s nod thanks to St. Louis Cardinals’s margin advantage, with St. Louis Cardinals’s recent run providing the second tip. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. St. Louis Cardinals is 55% over their recent sample; Arizona Diamondbacks is 30%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
  • Net efficiency. St. Louis Cardinals projects 51% from points-for vs points-allowed; Arizona Diamondbacks sits at 44%.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

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