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Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor12:35 PM ET
Model pickPittsburgh Pirates

San Francisco Giants 3.1 · Pittsburgh Pirates 5.4

68%confidence
San Francisco Giants16-24-1-1.2 net/g (SOS-adj -1.2) · expected win rate 36% · last 10: 30%
Pittsburgh Pirates22-19+0.8 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 57% · last 10: 60%
Venue EdgePNC ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Pittsburgh Pirates gets the model’s nod thanks to Pittsburgh Pirates’s margin advantage, with Pittsburgh Pirates’s recent run providing the second tip. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. Pittsburgh Pirates is 60% over their recent sample; San Francisco Giants is 30%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
  • Net efficiency. Pittsburgh Pirates projects 57% from points-for vs points-allowed; San Francisco Giants sits at 36%.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

San Francisco Giants

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

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