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Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Afternoon GameIndoor4:10 PM ET
Model pickChicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs 5.4 · Miami Marlins 3.6

68%confidence
Chicago Cubs27-14-1+1.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.0) · expected win rate 61% · last 10: 80%
Miami Marlins19-22-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.0) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeloanDepot parkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Chicago Cubs gets the model’s nod thanks to Chicago Cubs’s margin advantage, with Chicago Cubs’s recent run providing the second tip. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. Chicago Cubs is 80% over their recent sample; Miami Marlins is 40%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
  • Net efficiency. Chicago Cubs projects 61% from points-for vs points-allowed; Miami Marlins sits at 49%.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Chicago Cubs

Miami Marlins

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

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