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Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor7:10 PM ET
Model pickChicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs 5.2 · Boston Red Sox 3.5

68%confidence
Chicago Cubs27-14-1+1.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.0) · expected win rate 61% · last 10: 80%
Boston Red Sox17-23-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeFenway ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Chicago Cubs is the model’s call — Chicago Cubs on the margin numbers, Chicago Cubs on the form numbers. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. Chicago Cubs is 80% over their recent sample; Boston Red Sox is 55%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
  • Net efficiency. Chicago Cubs projects 61% from points-for vs points-allowed; Boston Red Sox sits at 47%.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

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