OKC @ SA
Frost Bank Center · San Antonio, TX
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Recent Form
San Antonio Spurs
- L@ MIN114-109
- Wvs MIN126-97
- W@ MIN139-109
- W@ OKC122-115 2OT
- L@ OKC122-113
Oklahoma City Thunder
- Wvs LAL125-107
- W@ LAL131-108
- W@ LAL115-110
- Lvs SA122-115 2OT
- Wvs SA122-113
Game Read
A transparent matchup read built from team strength, recent scoreboard history, league volatility, and available starter/bullpen context. It is analysis, not betting advice.
Oklahoma City Thunder 116 · San Antonio Spurs 112
Two reasons the projection lands on Oklahoma City Thunder: Oklahoma City Thunder’s scoring margin profile and Oklahoma City Thunder’s recent stretch. Three-point variance and free-throw rate move this number more than total field-goal percentage does.
Three things to watch
- Form gap. Oklahoma City Thunder is 90% over their recent sample; San Antonio Spurs is 70%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
- Net efficiency. Oklahoma City Thunder projects 80% from points-for vs points-allowed; San Antonio Spurs sits at 74%.
Model: rafty-v2.0. Inputs: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed, schedule-adjusted margin, recent form, rest, home venue, league volatility, and MLB starter/bullpen context when available. Refreshes whenever game pages republish.
Rafty Game Lab
Move the context sliders to see how Rafty’s matchup lean reacts before it becomes a public pick.
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Why This Pick?
- Oklahoma City Thunder: Team baseline-7.1
- San Antonio Spurs: Home venue+2.2
- Oklahoma City Thunder: away pythag -0.41
- San Antonio Spurs: home recent diff pg +0.38
- San Antonio Spurs: home pythag +0.36
For entertainment and analysis only. This tool does not use betting odds, spreads, parlays, or wagering advice.
Key Players to Watch
Oklahoma City Thunder
- Chet Holmgren C · #7
- Luguentz Dort G · #5
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander G · #2
- Isaiah Hartenstein C · #55
San Antonio Spurs
- De'Aaron Fox G · #4
- Julian Champagnie F · #30
- Stephon Castle G · #5
- Victor Wembanyama F · #1
Injury Report
San Antonio Spurs
Oklahoma City Thunder
On The Court
A quick look at where each team's starters slot in. Click a player to open their profile.