BOS @ HOU
Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameIndoor7:10 PM CT⚾ Ranger Suarez vs Lance McCullers Jr.MLB.TV
Result readHouston Astros
Boston Red Sox 1 · Houston Astros 8
Final
Boston Red Sox17-23-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 55%
Houston Astros16-25-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 43% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeDaikin ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Pick goes to Houston Astros on the back of Boston Red Sox’s margin work and Boston Red Sox’s last-ten momentum. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Boston Red Sox at 70%. Actual: Houston Astros by 7.
Pre-game pick: Boston Red Sox at 70%. Actual: Houston Astros by 7.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Boston Red Sox
- Brayan Bello SP · #66
- Connelly Early SP · #71
- Trevor Story SS · #10
- Willson Contreras 1B · #40
Houston Astros
- Mike Burrows SP · #50
- Lance McCullers Jr. SP · #43
- Kai-Wei Teng RP · #17
- Christian Walker 1B · #8
Injury Report
Houston Astros
Tatsuya Imai15-Day-ILLance McCullers Jr.Day-To-DayWalker JanekDay-To-DayLucas SpenceDay-To-DayYainer Diaz10-Day-IL
Boston Red Sox
Willson ContrerasDay-To-DayKutter Crawford15-Day-ILRoman Anthony10-Day-ILDanny Coulombe15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreMatthews homered to center (434 feet).0–4
- ScoreAltuve homered to left (368 feet).1–8
- ScoreAltuve homered to left (383 feet).1–6
- ScoreAlvarez homered to right (394 feet), Altuve scored.0–3
- ScoreCorrea grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Altuve scored, Paredes out at second, Alvarez to third.0–1
- 🏃 DoubleWalker doubled to center, Correa scored.1–7
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Houston Astros | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | — | 8 | 13 | 0 |
Boston Red Sox
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Anthony LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | .235 | .350 | .235 |
| Trevor Story SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .150 | .150 | .350 |
| Jarren Duran LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | .154 | .389 | .154 |
| Willson Contreras 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | .077 | .333 | .077 |
| Wilyer Abreu RF· | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .500 | .500 | 1.063 |
| Caleb Durbin 3B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .000 | .067 | .000 |
| Masataka Yoshida LF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .000 | .500 | .000 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Marcelo Mayer 2B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | .273 | .333 | .455 |
| Carlos Narvaez C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | .444 | .444 | .444 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela CF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .231 | .231 | .231 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez SP· | 4.1 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 76-44 | 8.31 | 76 |
| Johan Oviedo SP | 3.2 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 72-47 | 9.82 | 72 |
Houston Astros
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Altuve 2B· | 4-4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 19 | .412 | .565 | .824 |
| Yordan Alvarez LF· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .333 | .500 | .722 |
| Isaac Paredes 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | .211 | .318 | .368 |
| Nick Allen SS | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Carlos Correa SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | .250 | .318 | .250 |
| Christian Walker 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | .294 | .400 | .529 |
| Cam Smith RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | .125 | .333 | .188 |
| Jake Meyers CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .250 | .308 | .333 |
| Yainer Diaz C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .200 | .235 | .200 |
| Brice Matthews LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20 | .222 | .222 | .667 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance McCullers Jr. SP· | 7.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 96-63 | 1.29 | 96 |
| Ryan Weiss RP | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 33-22 | 3.00 | 33 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 7th InningYoshida struck out swinging.
- 5th InningParedes hit by pitch.
- 8th InningMayer walked.
- 7th InningCorrea singled to right.
- 7th InningPitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging
Scoring Plays
- 5th InningMatthews homered to center (434 feet).0–4
- 8th InningAltuve homered to left (368 feet).1–8
- 7th InningAltuve homered to left (383 feet).1–6
- 3rd InningAlvarez homered to right (394 feet), Altuve scored.0–3
- 1st InningCorrea grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Altuve scored, Paredes out at second, Alvarez to third.0–1
- 7th InningWalker doubled to center, Correa scored.1–7
- 7th InningAbreu hit a ground rule double, Duran scored, Contreras to third.1–5
- 6th InningDiaz hit sacrifice fly to center, Smith scored.0–5