BOS @ HOU
Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameIndoor7:10 PM CT⚾ Brayan Bello vs Hunter BrownMLB.TVNESN+
Result readHouston Astros
Boston Red Sox 2 · Houston Astros 9
Final
Boston Red Sox17-23-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 55%
Houston Astros16-25-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 43% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeDaikin ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Houston Astros is the model’s call — Boston Red Sox on the margin numbers, Boston Red Sox on the form numbers. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Boston Red Sox at 70%. Actual: Houston Astros by 7.
Pre-game pick: Boston Red Sox at 70%. Actual: Houston Astros by 7.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Boston Red Sox
- Brayan Bello SP · #66
- Connelly Early SP · #71
- Trevor Story SS · #10
- Willson Contreras 1B · #40
Houston Astros
- Mike Burrows SP · #50
- Lance McCullers Jr. SP · #43
- Kai-Wei Teng RP · #17
- Christian Walker 1B · #8
Injury Report
Houston Astros
Tatsuya Imai15-Day-ILLance McCullers Jr.Day-To-DayWalker JanekDay-To-DayLucas SpenceDay-To-DayYainer Diaz10-Day-IL
Boston Red Sox
Willson ContrerasDay-To-DayKutter Crawford15-Day-ILRoman Anthony10-Day-ILDanny Coulombe15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- 🏃 DoubleWong doubled to center, Mayer scored.1–3
- ScoreWalker singled to left, Altuve scored and Correa scored.0–3
- ScoreSmith homered to right (346 feet).1–9
- 🏃 DoubleAlvarez doubled to center, Peña scored.0–1
- ScoreAlvarez homered to right (399 feet).1–4
- ScoreCorrea singled to left, Alvarez scored and Meyers scored, Altuve to second.1–8
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Houston Astros | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | 9 | 11 | 0 |
Boston Red Sox
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Anthony LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | .190 | .292 | .190 |
| Trevor Story SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .167 | .167 | .333 |
| Masataka Yoshida LF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14 | .000 | .500 | .000 |
| Willson Contreras 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .118 | .318 | .118 |
| Wilyer Abreu RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .400 | .400 | .850 |
| Andruw Monasterio SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | .167 | .167 | .333 |
| Marcelo Mayer 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22 | .214 | .313 | .357 |
| Connor Wong C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | .429 | .429 | .714 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela CF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | .250 | .250 | .438 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello SP· | 4.2 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 92-58 | 9.64 | 92 |
| Ryan Watson RP | 1.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 27-14 | 4.91 | 27 |
| Jovani Moran RP | 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 26-14 | 2.25 | 26 |
Houston Astros
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Pena SS· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .200 | .200 | .200 |
| Yordan Alvarez LF· | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18 | .381 | .536 | .905 |
| Christian Vazquez C | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .333 | .500 | .333 |
| Jose Altuve 2B· | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13 | .368 | .556 | .737 |
| Brice Matthews LF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | .200 | .200 | .600 |
| Carlos Correa SS· | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .304 | .385 | .348 |
| Nick Allen SS | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Christian Walker 1B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .333 | .417 | .571 |
| Joey Loperfido LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .313 | .313 | .438 |
| Cam Smith RF· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 22 | .211 | .400 | .421 |
| Yainer Diaz C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .158 | .190 | .158 |
| Jake Meyers CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .250 | .294 | .313 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Brown SP· | 6.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 78-51 | 0.84 | 78 |
| Cody Bolton SP | 3.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 50-34 | 3.00 | 50 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 5th InningSmith walked.
- 5th InningPitch 9 : Ball 3
- 5th InningPitch 8 : Strike 6 Foul
- 8th InningWong struck out looking.
- 5th InningPitch 7 : Ball 2
Scoring Plays
- 5th InningWong doubled to center, Mayer scored.1–3
- 3rd InningWalker singled to left, Altuve scored and Correa scored.0–3
- 7th InningSmith homered to right (346 feet).1–9
- 1st InningAlvarez doubled to center, Peña scored.0–1
- 5th InningAlvarez homered to right (399 feet).1–4
- 6th InningCorrea singled to left, Alvarez scored and Meyers scored, Altuve to second.1–8
- 5th InningWalker scored on throwing error by catcher Wong, Loperfido stole second, Loperfido safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Mayer.1–6
- 5th InningLoperfido singled to left, Correa scored, Walker to third.1–5
- 5th InningWalker scored on throwing error by catcher Wong, Loperfido stole second, Loperfido safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Mayer.1–6
- 8th InningRafaela homered to right (337 feet).2–9