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In The Rafters

BOS @ HOU

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameIndoor1:10 PM CT⚾ Garrett Crochet vs Mike BurrowsMLB.TV
Result readHouston Astros

Boston Red Sox 4 · Houston Astros 6

Final
Boston Red Sox17-23-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 55%
Houston Astros16-25-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 43% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeDaikin ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans Houston Astros because Boston Red Sox owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Boston Red Sox has the recent-form edge. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Boston Red Sox at 66%. Actual: Houston Astros by 2.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Boston Red Sox

Houston Astros

Injury Report

Houston Astros

Tatsuya Imai15-Day-ILLance McCullers Jr.Day-To-DayWalker JanekDay-To-DayLucas SpenceDay-To-DayYainer Diaz10-Day-IL

Boston Red Sox

Willson ContrerasDay-To-DayKutter Crawford15-Day-ILRoman Anthony10-Day-ILDanny Coulombe15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet15-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Boston Red Sox
JD Jarren Duran LF · #16 CR C. Rafaela CF · #3 WA Wilyer Abreu RF · #52 CD Caleb Durbin 3B · #5 TS Trevor Story SS · #10 MM Marcelo Mayer 2B · #11 WC W. Contreras 1B · #40 BB Brayan Bello P · #66 CN Carlos Narvaez C · #75
Houston Astros
YA Yordan Alvarez LF · #44 DJ Daniel Johnson CF · #31 CS Cam Smith RF · #11 IP Isaac Paredes 3B · #15 CC Carlos Correa SS · #1 JA Jose Altuve 2B · #27 CW C. Walker 1B · #8 MB Mike Burrows P · #50 YD Yainer Diaz C · #21

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreAbreu homered to right (372 feet).8th Inning3–6
  2. ScoreVázquez homered to left center (379 feet).7th Inning2–6
  3. ScoreAnthony homered to left center (391 feet).9th Inning4–6
  4. 🏃 DoubleParedes doubled to center, Alvarez scored.1st Inning1–1
  5. ScoreCorrea homered to left (402 feet), Altuve scored and Alvarez scored.5th Inning2–5
  6. ScoreDuran grounded out to shortstop, Kiner-Falefa scored, Wong to third.2nd Inning2–2

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Boston Red Sox110000011472
Houston Astros20003010—680

Boston Red Sox

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Jarren Duran LF·1-5511100214.167.348.167
Trevor Story SS·0-5500000321.138.138.276
Masataka Yoshida LF·0-3300001114.000.429.000
Willson Contreras 1B·1-3301101111.150.346.150
Wilyer Abreu RF·2-4412110121.417.417.917
Caleb Durbin 3B·0-4400000214.000.053.000
Ceddanne Rafaela CF·0-3300000110.211.250.368
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B·0-2210001114.000.200.000
Roman Anthony LF1-111111003.227.320.364
Connor Wong C·2-3302000013.500.500.800
Marcelo Mayer 2B0-110000015.200.294.333

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Garrett Crochet SP·5.065407193-633.2793
Greg Weissert RP1.000001016-910.1316
Danny Coulombe RP1.011100116-115.4016
Garrett Whitlock RP1.010021037-240.0037

Houston Astros

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Jose Altuve 2B·1-4411000114.348.516.652
Yordan Alvarez LF·2-3322000016.417.563.917
Isaac Paredes 3B·1-3311100114.227.346.409
Carlos Correa SS·1-4411310012.296.367.444
Christian Walker 1B·1-4401100117.320.393.520
Cam Smith RF·1-4401000228.217.379.391
Jake Meyers CF·0-3300001117.211.286.263
Brice Matthews LF·0-3300000219.154.154.462
Joey Loperfido LF0-000000107.313.353.438
Christian Vazquez C·1-4411110118.286.375.714

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Mike Burrows SP·5.052236084-555.9184
AJ Blubaugh RP1.000001014-101.6914
Bryan King RP1.000002012-82.4512
Kai-Wei Teng RP1.011101114-92.7014
Bryan Abreu RP1.011103116-1219.2916

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 8th InningSmith singled to right.
  2. 8th InningPitch 14 : Ball In Play
  3. 8th InningPitch 13 : Ball 2
  4. 8th InningPitch 12 : Strike 2 Foul
  5. 8th InningPitch 11 : Strike 2 Foul
  6. 8th InningPitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul
  7. 8th InningVázquez struck out looking.

Scoring Plays

  1. 8th InningAbreu homered to right (372 feet).3–6
  2. 7th InningVázquez homered to left center (379 feet).2–6
  3. 9th InningAnthony homered to left center (391 feet).4–6
  4. 1st InningParedes doubled to center, Alvarez scored.1–1
  5. 5th InningCorrea homered to left (402 feet), Altuve scored and Alvarez scored.2–5
  6. 2nd InningDuran grounded out to shortstop, Kiner-Falefa scored, Wong to third.2–2
  7. 1st InningWalker singled to left, Paredes scored, Correa to second.1–2
  8. 1st InningContreras singled to center, Duran scored, Yoshida to second.1–0

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