CHC @ CLE
Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Afternoon GameOutdoor4:10 PM ET⚾ Cade Horton vs Joey CantilloESPN UnlmtdMLB.TVCLEGuardians.TV
Result readCleveland Guardians
Chicago Cubs 1 · Cleveland Guardians 4
Final
Chicago Cubs27-14-1+1.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.0) · expected win rate 61% · last 10: 80%
Cleveland Guardians21-21-1-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeProgressive FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Cleveland Guardians is the model’s call — Chicago Cubs on the margin numbers, Chicago Cubs on the form numbers. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 84%. Actual: Cleveland Guardians by 3.
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 84%. Actual: Cleveland Guardians by 3.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Chicago Cubs
- Edward Cabrera SP · #30
- Jameson Taillon SP · #50
- Alex Bregman 3B · #3
- Nico Hoerner 2B · #2
Cleveland Guardians
- Gavin Williams SP · #32
- Joey Cantillo SP · #54
- Jose Ramirez 3B · #11
- Brayan Rocchio SS · #4
Injury Report
Cleveland Guardians
Gabriel Arias10-Day-ILShawn Armstrong15-Day-ILAndrew Walters15-Day-ILCarlos HernandezDay-To-Day
Chicago Cubs
Jeff BrighamDay-To-DayJaxon WigginsDay-To-DayJordan Wicks15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreArias homered to right (358 feet).1–2
- 🏃 DoubleAmaya doubled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored.1–0
- ScoreDeLauter homered to right (402 feet), Kwan scored.1–4
- 💣 Home RunDeLauter singled to left, Schneemann scored, Arias thrown out at home.1–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | — | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Chicago Cubs
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner 2B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16 | .292 | .400 | .458 |
| Alex Bregman 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | .214 | .313 | .429 |
| Ian Happ LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | .179 | .281 | .536 |
| Carson Kelly C· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .250 | .348 | .250 |
| Michael Busch 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .240 | .367 | .320 |
| Dansby Swanson SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | .143 | .296 | .143 |
| Matt Shaw RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .222 | .211 | .222 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | .269 | .321 | .308 |
| Miguel Amaya C· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .400 | .455 | .800 |
| Moises Ballesteros C | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .158 | .238 | .158 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Horton SP· | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17-8 | 2.45 | 17 |
| Colin Rea SP | 3.1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 57-37 | 4.26 | 57 |
| Hoby Milner RP | 1.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10-7 | 4.50 | 10 |
| Hunter Harvey RP | 0.2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 30-17 | 9.00 | 30 |
| Jacob Webb RP | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 29-17 | 0.00 | 29 |
Cleveland Guardians
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan CF· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .233 | .324 | .267 |
| Chase DeLauter RF· | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .346 | .370 | .923 |
| Jose Ramirez 3B· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .188 | .235 | .344 |
| Kyle Manzardo 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | .074 | .194 | .074 |
| Bo Naylor C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .174 | .208 | .174 |
| Angel Martinez LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | .167 | .318 | .222 |
| Daniel Schneemann CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .227 | .227 | .409 |
| Gabriel Arias SS· | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .143 | .217 | .429 |
| Brayan Rocchio SS· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .227 | .370 | .273 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Cantillo SP· | 5.1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 82-51 | 3.00 | 82 |
| Matt Festa RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4-2 | 4.91 | 4 |
| Connor Brogdon RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13-10 | 3.00 | 13 |
| Shawn Armstrong RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13-8 | 2.08 | 13 |
| Cade Smith RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 22-16 | 7.20 | 22 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 9th InningHapp struck out looking.
- 9th InningPitch 10 : Strike 3 Looking
- 9th InningPitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul
- 7th InningCrow-Armstrong flied out to left.
- 9th InningPitch 8 : Ball 3
- 8th InningSchneemann struck out swinging.
Scoring Plays
- 7th InningArias homered to right (358 feet).1–2
- 3rd InningAmaya doubled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored.1–0
- 7th InningDeLauter homered to right (402 feet), Kwan scored.1–4
- 5th InningDeLauter singled to left, Schneemann scored, Arias thrown out at home.1–1