HOU @ COL
Coors Field · Denver, Colorado
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM MT53°F · 3 mph wind · clear⚾ Mike Burrows vs Kyle FreelandMLB.TVRockies.TV
Result readColorado Rockies
Houston Astros 1 · Colorado Rockies 5
Final
Houston Astros16-25-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 43% · last 10: 50%
Colorado Rockies16-25-2-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 25%
Venue EdgeCoors FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans Colorado Rockies because Houston Astros owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Houston Astros has the recent-form edge. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Houston Astros at 78%. Actual: Colorado Rockies by 4.
Pre-game pick: Houston Astros at 78%. Actual: Colorado Rockies by 4.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Houston Astros
- Mike Burrows SP · #50
- Lance McCullers Jr. SP · #43
- Kai-Wei Teng RP · #17
- Christian Walker 1B · #8
Colorado Rockies
- Michael Lorenzen SP · #24
- Tomoyuki Sugano SP · #11
- Jimmy Herget RP · #44
- Brennan Bernardino RP · #83
Injury Report
Colorado Rockies
Jimmy HergetBereavementJared ThomasDay-To-DayMcCade Brown60-Day-ILJeff Criswell60-Day-ILRyan Feltner15-Day-IL
Houston Astros
Tatsuya Imai15-Day-ILLance McCullers Jr.Day-To-DayWalker JanekDay-To-DayLucas SpenceDay-To-DayYainer Diaz10-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreCastro homered to right center (436 feet), Rumfield scored.1–3
- ScoreCastro singled to left, Johnston scored, Rumfield to second.1–1
- ScoreWalker homered to right (371 feet).1–0
- ScoreMoniak homered to right center (426 feet), Karros scored.1–5
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Colorado Rockies | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | — | 5 | 10 | 1 |
Houston Astros
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Pena SS· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | .267 | .333 | .400 |
| Yordan Alvarez LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .324 | .519 | .730 |
| Jose Altuve 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | .341 | .491 | .585 |
| Isaac Paredes 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | .231 | .333 | .385 |
| Christian Walker 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .326 | .392 | .652 |
| Cam Smith RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .300 | .417 | .575 |
| Jake Meyers CF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .243 | .326 | .378 |
| Yainer Diaz C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .225 | .273 | .250 |
| Brice Matthews LF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .105 | .190 | .316 |
| Joey Loperfido LF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | .276 | .353 | .379 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Burrows SP· | 5.1 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 87-58 | 5.63 | 87 |
| Steven Okert RP | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13-8 | 5.40 | 13 |
| Kai-Wei Teng RP | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7-7 | 2.84 | 7 |
| Christian Roa RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15-10 | 3.00 | 15 |
Colorado Rockies
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edouard Julien 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .211 | .250 | .263 |
| Hunter Goodman C | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .238 | .273 | .333 |
| Mickey Moniak LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .278 | .278 | .778 |
| Ezequiel Tovar SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .244 | .262 | .366 |
| Troy Johnston RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .324 | .343 | .559 |
| TJ Rumfield 1B· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | .389 | .450 | .639 |
| Willi Castro 2B· | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .250 | .318 | .400 |
| Jordan Beck LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .080 | .148 | .120 |
| Brenton Doyle CF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .129 | .206 | .161 |
| Brett Sullivan C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .308 | .357 | .308 |
| Kyle Karros 3B· | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | .226 | .314 | .258 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Freeland SP· | 6.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 81-55 | 2.30 | 81 |
| Antonio Senzatela RP | 2.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 26-18 | 0.00 | 26 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 8th InningLoperfido struck out looking.
- 8th InningPitch 7 : Strike 3 Looking
- 8th InningPitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
- 8th InningPitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging
- 8th InningPitch 4 : Ball 3
- 2nd InningRumfield walked, Johnston to second.
- 8th InningCastro struck out swinging.
Scoring Plays
- 4th InningCastro homered to right center (436 feet), Rumfield scored.1–3
- 2nd InningCastro singled to left, Johnston scored, Rumfield to second.1–1
- 2nd InningWalker homered to right (371 feet).1–0
- 7th InningMoniak homered to right center (426 feet), Karros scored.1–5