MIN @ TOR
Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameIndoor3:07 PM ET⚾ Joe Ryan vs Eric LauerMLB.TVTwins.TV
Result readMinnesota Twins
Minnesota Twins 7 · Toronto Blue Jays 4
Final
Minnesota Twins18-23-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.5) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 50%
Toronto Blue Jays18-22-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeRogers CentreHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Pick goes to Minnesota Twins on the back of Toronto Blue Jays’s margin work and Minnesota Twins’s last-ten momentum. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Toronto Blue Jays at 59%. Actual: Minnesota Twins by 3.
Pre-game pick: Toronto Blue Jays at 59%. Actual: Minnesota Twins by 3.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Minnesota Twins
- Bailey Ober SP · #17
- Joe Ryan SP · #41
- Josh Bell 1B · #56
- Luke Keaschall 2B · #15
Toronto Blue Jays
- Kevin Gausman SP · #34
- Dylan Cease SP · #84
- Braydon Fisher RP · #63
- Mason Fluharty RP · #68
Injury Report
Toronto Blue Jays
Javen ColemanDay-To-DayNathan Lukes10-Day-ILCJ StubbsDay-To-DayLazaro Estrada15-Day-ILFernando Perezdevelopmental list
Minnesota Twins
Cory LewisDay-To-DayGarrett Acton15-Day-ILCole Sands15-Day-ILJulian MerryweatherDay-To-DayCody Laweryson15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreVarsho homered to right center (382 feet), Springer scored.0–2
- ScoreJeffers walked, Buxton scored, Keaschall to second, Martin to third.2–2
- ScoreSánchez homered to right center (406 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored.7–4
- ScoreBell singled to center, Keaschall scored and Martin scored, Jeffers to second.4–2
- ScoreLarnach homered to right (398 feet), Jeffers scored and Bell scored.7–2
- ScoreLee homered to left (349 feet).1–2
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 0 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
Minnesota Twins
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton CF· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .182 | .258 | .273 |
| Austin Martin LF· | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 17 | .300 | .500 | .333 |
| Luke Keaschall 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | .193 | .254 | .263 |
| Ryan Jeffers C· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | .270 | .400 | .405 |
| Josh Bell 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .286 | .390 | .551 |
| Victor Caratini C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | .256 | .353 | .279 |
| Trevor Larnach LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17 | .273 | .448 | .500 |
| James Outman CF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .067 | .000 |
| Brooks Lee SS· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | .237 | .293 | .395 |
| Ryan Kreidler 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Ryan SP· | 7.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 91-65 | 3.80 | 91 |
| Kody Funderburk RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17-11 | 2.70 | 17 |
| Cole Sands RP | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22-16 | 5.06 | 22 |
Toronto Blue Jays
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Springer DH· | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | .185 | .290 | .370 |
| Myles Straw RF | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .333 | .375 | .333 |
| Daulton Varsho CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .213 | .302 | .404 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .320 | .433 | .440 |
| Jesus Sanchez LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .275 | .341 | .500 |
| Davis Schneider LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | .238 | .407 | .429 |
| Nathan Lukes RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .091 | .160 | .091 |
| Ernie Clement 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .286 | .298 | .357 |
| Andres Gimenez SS· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | .260 | .315 | .420 |
| Brandon Valenzuela C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .200 | .200 | .400 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Lauer SP· | 5.1 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 95-53 | 7.82 | 95 |
| Spencer Miles RP | 3.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 43-29 | 3.86 | 43 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 9th InningLukes lined out to first.
- 9th InningGuerrero Jr. singled to center.
Scoring Plays
- 1st InningVarsho homered to right center (382 feet), Springer scored.0–2
- 3rd InningJeffers walked, Buxton scored, Keaschall to second, Martin to third.2–2
- 9th InningSánchez homered to right center (406 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored.7–4
- 3rd InningBell singled to center, Keaschall scored and Martin scored, Jeffers to second.4–2
- 3rd InningLarnach homered to right (398 feet), Jeffers scored and Bell scored.7–2
- 3rd InningLee homered to left (349 feet).1–2