TOR @ MIL
American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameIndoor6:40 PM CT⚾ Kevin Gausman vs Jacob MisiorowskiMLB.TVBrewers.TV
Result readToronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays 9 · Milwaukee Brewers 7
Final
Toronto Blue Jays18-22-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 40%
Milwaukee Brewers22-16-2+1.4 net/g (SOS-adj +1.4) · expected win rate 64% · last 10: 75%
Venue EdgeAmerican Family FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans Toronto Blue Jays because Milwaukee Brewers owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Milwaukee Brewers has the recent-form edge. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Milwaukee Brewers at 81%. Actual: Toronto Blue Jays by 2.
Pre-game pick: Milwaukee Brewers at 81%. Actual: Toronto Blue Jays by 2.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Toronto Blue Jays
- Kevin Gausman SP · #34
- Dylan Cease SP · #84
- Braydon Fisher RP · #63
- Mason Fluharty RP · #68
Milwaukee Brewers
- Jacob Misiorowski SP · #32
- Kyle Harrison SP · #52
- Aaron Ashby RP · #26
- DL Hall RP · #37
Injury Report
Milwaukee Brewers
J.B. BukauskasDay-To-DayBrandon Woodruff15-Day-ILChristian Yelich10-Day-ILBrandon Lockridge10-Day-ILRob Zastryzny60-Day-IL
Toronto Blue Jays
Javen ColemanDay-To-DayNathan Lukes10-Day-ILCJ StubbsDay-To-DayLazaro Estrada15-Day-ILFernando Perezdevelopmental list
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- 🏃 DoubleLockridge doubled to left, Turang scored, Bauers to third.6–6
- ScoreTurang singled to left, Frelick scored.6–5
- ScoreGiménez grounded out to second, Schneider scored, Okamoto to second.5–4
- ScoreGiménez homered to right (392 feet).1–3
- ScoreContreras singled to left, Ortiz scored.9–7
- 🏃 DoubleGuerrero Jr. doubled to left, Clement scored.7–6
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 0 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 0 |
Toronto Blue Jays
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernie Clement 2B· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .303 | .313 | .379 |
| Daulton Varsho CF· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .263 | .333 | .491 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | .328 | .443 | .448 |
| Jesus Sanchez LF· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19 | .292 | .352 | .479 |
| Eloy Jimenez DH· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | .286 | .375 | .286 |
| Myles Straw RF | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .375 | .412 | .438 |
| Nathan Lukes RF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | .071 | .129 | .071 |
| Davis Schneider LF | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .250 | .400 | .458 |
| Kazuma Okamoto 3B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .224 | .297 | .345 |
| Andres Gimenez SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .276 | .323 | .483 |
| Brandon Valenzuela C· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .150 | .190 | .300 |
| Lenyn Sosa 2B | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| Tyler Heineman C | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .333 | .400 | .333 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Gausman SP· | 5.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 97-62 | 2.42 | 97 |
| Mason Fluharty RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 14-9 | 5.68 | 14 |
| Braydon Fisher RP | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 17-13 | 0.96 | 17 |
| Tyler Rogers RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17-11 | 0.00 | 17 |
| Jeff Hoffman RP | 0.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 32-14 | 4.32 | 32 |
| Louis Varland RP | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19-14 | 0.00 | 19 |
Milwaukee Brewers
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sal Frelick RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 25 | .192 | .323 | .288 |
| William Contreras C· | 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | .291 | .400 | .473 |
| Brice Turang 2B· | 3-6 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 27 | .321 | .446 | .604 |
| Gary Sanchez C· | 1-5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 28 | .259 | .412 | .815 |
| Jake Bauers 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .240 | .309 | .560 |
| Luis Matos RF· | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .250 | .308 | .250 |
| Brandon Lockridge LF | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .275 | .341 | .325 |
| Garrett Mitchell CF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 24 | .282 | .429 | .436 |
| Joey Ortiz SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .200 | .234 | .200 |
| David Hamilton 3B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | .188 | .381 | .188 |
| Luis Rengifo 3B | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .128 | .180 | .213 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski SP· | 5.1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 76-56 | 3.32 | 76 |
| DL Hall RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5-3 | 0.00 | 5 |
| Angel Zerpa RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9-7 | 6.00 | 9 |
| Abner Uribe RP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20-15 | 5.68 | 20 |
| Trevor Megill RP | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20-14 | 14.40 | 20 |
| Grant Anderson RP | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9-6 | 3.72 | 9 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 7th InningSchneider struck out swinging.
- 5th InningTurang struck out swinging.
- 1st InningTurang struck out swinging.
Scoring Plays
- 9th InningLockridge doubled to left, Turang scored, Bauers to third.6–6
- 9th InningTurang singled to left, Frelick scored.6–5
- 9th InningGiménez grounded out to second, Schneider scored, Okamoto to second.5–4
- 5th InningGiménez homered to right (392 feet).1–3
- 10th InningContreras singled to left, Ortiz scored.9–7
- 10th InningGuerrero Jr. doubled to left, Clement scored.7–6
- 9th InningOkamoto singled to left, Straw scored, Schneider to third.4–4
- 8th InningGuerrero Jr. grounded out to shortstop, Sosa scored, Varsho to third.3–4
- 4th InningBauers homered to center (418 feet), Turang scored and Sánchez scored.0–3
- 10th InningStraw doubled to left, Sánchez scored and Guerrero Jr. scored.9–6
- 7th InningSánchez homered to left (409 feet).2–4
- 9th InningClement singled to left, Okamoto scored, Clement thrown out at second.6–4
- 6th InningVarsho homered to right center (378 feet).2–3