TOR @ MIL
American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameIndoor12:40 PM CT⚾ Patrick Corbin vs Brandon SproatMLB.TVBrewers.TV
Result readMilwaukee Brewers
Toronto Blue Jays 1 · Milwaukee Brewers 2
Final
Toronto Blue Jays18-22-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 40%
Milwaukee Brewers22-16-2+1.4 net/g (SOS-adj +1.4) · expected win rate 64% · last 10: 75%
Venue EdgeAmerican Family FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Pick goes to Milwaukee Brewers on the back of Milwaukee Brewers’s margin work and Milwaukee Brewers’s last-ten momentum. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Milwaukee Brewers at 81%. Actual: Milwaukee Brewers by 1.
Pre-game pick: Milwaukee Brewers at 81%. Actual: Milwaukee Brewers by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Toronto Blue Jays
- Kevin Gausman SP · #34
- Dylan Cease SP · #84
- Braydon Fisher RP · #63
- Mason Fluharty RP · #68
Milwaukee Brewers
- Jacob Misiorowski SP · #32
- Kyle Harrison SP · #52
- Aaron Ashby RP · #26
- DL Hall RP · #37
Injury Report
Milwaukee Brewers
J.B. BukauskasDay-To-DayBrandon Woodruff15-Day-ILChristian Yelich10-Day-ILBrandon Lockridge10-Day-ILRob Zastryzny60-Day-IL
Toronto Blue Jays
Javen ColemanDay-To-DayNathan Lukes10-Day-ILCJ StubbsDay-To-DayLazaro Estrada15-Day-ILFernando Perezdevelopmental list
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreOrtiz hit sacrifice bunt to catcher, Mitchell scored, Hamilton to second.1–2
- ScoreRengifo hit sacrifice fly to left, Turang scored.1–1
- ScoreHeineman hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Giménez scored, Clement to second.1–0
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Toronto Blue Jays
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Schneider LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 23 | .214 | .371 | .393 |
| Daulton Varsho CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | .266 | .338 | .469 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | .323 | .436 | .431 |
| Jesus Sanchez LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .264 | .317 | .434 |
| Eloy Jimenez DH | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .250 | .333 | .250 |
| Lenyn Sosa 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .375 | .375 | .500 |
| Kazuma Okamoto 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .200 | .278 | .308 |
| Andres Gimenez SS· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .292 | .333 | .492 |
| Ernie Clement 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .288 | .297 | .356 |
| Tyler Heineman C· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .300 | .364 | .300 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin SP· | 5.2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 79-50 | 4.66 | 79 |
| Tommy Nance RP | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16-7 | 7.04 | 16 |
| Joe Mantiply RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10-9 | 4.76 | 10 |
| Louis Varland RP | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13-8 | 0.00 | 13 |
Milwaukee Brewers
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lockridge LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .255 | .327 | .298 |
| Brice Turang 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | .300 | .425 | .567 |
| William Contreras C· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .317 | .411 | .476 |
| Gary Sanchez C· | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19 | .273 | .429 | .758 |
| Sal Frelick RF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .179 | .303 | .268 |
| Luis Rengifo 3B· | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .125 | .173 | .208 |
| Jake Bauers 1B | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .218 | .295 | .509 |
| Luis Matos RF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .214 | .267 | .214 |
| Garrett Mitchell CF | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | .268 | .423 | .415 |
| Greg Jones LF· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .500 | .500 | .500 |
| David Hamilton 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | .211 | .375 | .211 |
| Joey Ortiz SS· | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | .204 | .250 | .204 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Sproat SP· | 6.2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 75-53 | 6.88 | 75 |
| Aaron Ashby RP | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7-5 | 3.21 | 7 |
| Trevor Megill RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16-11 | 12.00 | 16 |
| Angel Zerpa RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10-6 | 5.40 | 10 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 8th InningSchneider struck out swinging.
- 8th InningPitch 9 : Strike 3 Swinging
- 8th InningPitch 8 : Ball 3
- 8th InningHeineman flied out to right.
- 7th InningMitchell walked.
Scoring Plays
- 7th InningOrtiz hit sacrifice bunt to catcher, Mitchell scored, Hamilton to second.1–2
- 4th InningRengifo hit sacrifice fly to left, Turang scored.1–1
- 3rd InningHeineman hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Giménez scored, Clement to second.1–0