NYM @ CHC
Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameOutdoor1:20 PM CT42°F · 3 mph wind · mostly clear⚾ Tobias Myers vs Javier AssadMLB.TV
Result readChicago Cubs
New York Mets 1 · Chicago Cubs 2
Final
New York Mets15-25-2-0.7 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 55%
Chicago Cubs27-14-1+1.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.0) · expected win rate 61% · last 10: 80%
Venue EdgeWrigley FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans Chicago Cubs because Chicago Cubs owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Chicago Cubs has the recent-form edge. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 78%. Actual: Chicago Cubs by 1.
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 78%. Actual: Chicago Cubs by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
New York Mets
- Freddy Peralta SP · #51
- Clay Holmes SP · #35
- Tobias Myers RP · #32
- Bo Bichette 3B · #19
Chicago Cubs
- Edward Cabrera SP · #30
- Jameson Taillon SP · #50
- Alex Bregman 3B · #3
- Nico Hoerner 2B · #2
Injury Report
Chicago Cubs
Jeff BrighamDay-To-DayJaxon WigginsDay-To-DayJordan Wicks15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd15-Day-IL
New York Mets
Nate LavenderDay-To-DayNick BurdiDay-To-DayGrae KessingerOutJose RojasDay-To-DayA.J. Minter15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreMelendez homered to right center (387 feet).1–0
- 🏃 DoubleConforto doubled to right, Kingery scored.1–1
- ScoreHoerner hit sacrifice fly to right, Crow-Armstrong scored.1–2
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Chicago Cubs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
New York Mets
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Benge LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .143 | .229 | .206 |
| Francisco Alvarez C | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | .268 | .379 | .500 |
| Tommy Pham LF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Bo Bichette 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .217 | .255 | .283 |
| Francisco Lindor SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .205 | .293 | .307 |
| Luis Robert Jr. CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .257 | .366 | .371 |
| MJ Melendez LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 23 | .357 | .438 | .714 |
| Mark Vientos 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .222 | .246 | .370 |
| Brett Baty RF· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .200 | .206 | .277 |
| Tyrone Taylor RF | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | .214 | .241 | .357 |
| Marcus Semien 2B· | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | .234 | .294 | .312 |
| Luis Torrens C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .261 | .261 | .348 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobias Myers RP· | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 28-16 | 3.00 | 28 |
| David Peterson SP | 3.2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 47-26 | 5.40 | 47 |
| Huascar Brazoban RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13-5 | 0.00 | 13 |
| Brooks Raley RP | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12-7 | 2.25 | 12 |
| Luke Weaver RP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13-9 | 6.23 | 13 |
| Devin Williams RP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 20-15 | 7.11 | 20 |
| Craig Kimbrel RP | 0.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8-5 | 0.00 | 8 |
Chicago Cubs
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | .325 | .402 | .518 |
| Michael Busch 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .164 | .262 | .192 |
| Alex Bregman 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .233 | .309 | .314 |
| Ian Happ LF· | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19 | .240 | .352 | .533 |
| Scott Kingery 3B | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Caleb Thielbar RP | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Seiya Suzuki RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .235 | .366 | .265 |
| Moises Ballesteros C· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .364 | .396 | .591 |
| Matt Shaw RF | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .264 | .298 | .472 |
| Michael Conforto RF | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .304 | .448 | .435 |
| Carson Kelly C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | .315 | .422 | .481 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .222 | .276 | .309 |
| Dansby Swanson SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | .188 | .326 | .377 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Assad SP· | 5.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 82-49 | 5.74 | 82 |
| Jacob Webb RP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21-14 | 5.00 | 21 |
| Riley Martin RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14-10 | 0.00 | 14 |
| Corbin Martin RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11-8 | 0.00 | 11 |
| Caleb Thielbar RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16-10 | 2.25 | 16 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 10th InningSwanson struck out swinging.
- 10th InningPitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging
- 10th InningPitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
- 9th InningCrow-Armstrong struck out swinging.
- 8th InningAlvarez struck out swinging.
- 5th InningMelendez homered to right center (387 feet).1–0
Scoring Plays
- 5th InningMelendez homered to right center (387 feet).1–0
- 9th InningConforto doubled to right, Kingery scored.1–1
- 10th InningHoerner hit sacrifice fly to right, Crow-Armstrong scored.1–2