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InTheRafters.com

NYY @ HOU

Joshua Silvia
12–19 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameIndoor7:10 PM CT⚾ Will Warren vs Lance McCullers Jr.MLB.TV
Result readNew York Yankees

New York Yankees 12 · Houston Astros 4

Final
New York Yankees26-15+1.8 net/g (SOS-adj +1.5) · expected win rate 68% · last 10: 60%
Houston Astros16-25-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 43% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeDaikin ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

New York Yankees gets the model’s nod thanks to New York Yankees’s margin advantage, with New York Yankees’s recent run providing the second tip. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: New York Yankees at 94%. Actual: New York Yankees by 8.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

New York Yankees

Houston Astros

Injury Report

Houston Astros

Tatsuya Imai15-Day-ILLance McCullers Jr.Day-To-DayWalker JanekDay-To-DayLucas SpenceDay-To-DayYainer Diaz10-Day-IL

New York Yankees

Jose CaballeroDay-To-DayBen HessDay-To-DayGerrit Cole15-Day-ILGiancarlo Stanton10-Day-ILJasson Dominguez10-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

New York Yankees
CB Cody Bellinger LF · #35 TG Trent Grisham CF · #12 AJ Aaron Judge RF · #99 RM Ryan McMahon 3B · #19 JC Jose Caballero SS · #72 JC Chisholm Jr. 2B · #13 BR Ben Rice 1B · #22 CS Cam Schlittler P · #31 AW Austin Wells C · #28
Houston Astros
YA Yordan Alvarez LF · #44 DJ Daniel Johnson CF · #31 CS Cam Smith RF · #11 IP Isaac Paredes 3B · #15 CC Carlos Correa SS · #1 JA Jose Altuve 2B · #27 CW C. Walker 1B · #8 MB Mike Burrows P · #50 YD Yainer Diaz C · #21

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreMcMahon grounded into double play, pitcher to shortstop to first, Chisholm Jr. scored, Escarra out at second.7th Inning11–2
  2. ScoreGrisham hit sacrifice fly to center, Chisholm Jr. scored, Caballero to second, Escarra to third.6th Inning8–2
  3. ScoreStanton singled to center, Rice scored.6th Inning6–2
  4. ScoreChisholm Jr. singled to right, Bellinger scored and Rice scored.1st Inning3–0
  5. ScoreDiaz homered to left (387 feet).7th Inning12–3
  6. ScoreRice homered to right center (402 feet).7th Inning9–2

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
New York Yankees31010340012130
Houston Astros0101002004111

New York Yankees

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Trent Grisham CF·0-2210102023.162.315.324
Aaron Judge RF·0-2200003018.237.372.559
Amed Rosario 3B0-000000000.269.310.558
Cody Bellinger LF·1-5511000122.267.364.422
Ben Rice 1B·2-5532210121.316.450.747
Giancarlo Stanton DH·1-3301100015.256.302.422
Randal Grichuk LF1-2221000010.194.212.323
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B·3-4433411121.213.300.337
J.C. Escarra C·2-5502000121.208.240.333
Ryan McMahon 3B·1-4411110011.151.286.264
Jose Caballero SS·2-4412210010.261.301.386

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Will Warren SP·6.072216095-642.5995
Fernando Cruz RP1.032203220-154.3220
Ryan Yarbrough RP2.010012037-224.5037

Houston Astros

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Carlos Correa SS·0-3300000115.275.356.374
Braden Shewmake 2B1-2211110010.500.5002.000
Yordan Alvarez LF·2-3302000011.357.471.776
Christian Vazquez C1-220100005.351.429.622
Isaac Paredes 3B·0-3300000014.218.322.346
Shay Whitcomb 3B0-110000013.100.182.400
Jose Altuve 2B·2-332200007.267.362.426
Daniel Johnson CF1-110100003.200.429.200
Christian Walker 1B·2-4402000213.274.364.505
Cam Smith RF·0-3300101218.231.321.385
Dustin Harris LF·0-3300001321.000.250.000
Yainer Diaz C·2-4412210013.213.238.333
Brice Matthews LF·0-4400000219.150.244.300

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Lance McCullers Jr. SP·5.067543292-516.7592
Colton Gordon SP2.075520253-3211.5753
Jayden Murray RP1.000000013-73.6013
Bryan Abreu RP1.000001014-612.9614

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 8th InningHarris walked.
  2. 8th InningPitch 6 : Ball 4
  3. 8th InningJudge flied out to left.
  4. 9th InningShewmake flied out to shortstop.
  5. 8th InningPitch 5 : Ball 3
  6. 8th InningPitch 3 : Ball In Play

Scoring Plays

  1. 7th InningMcMahon grounded into double play, pitcher to shortstop to first, Chisholm Jr. scored, Escarra out at second.11–2
  2. 6th InningGrisham hit sacrifice fly to center, Chisholm Jr. scored, Caballero to second, Escarra to third.8–2
  3. 6th InningStanton singled to center, Rice scored.6–2
  4. 1st InningChisholm Jr. singled to right, Bellinger scored and Rice scored.3–0
  5. 7th InningDiaz homered to left (387 feet).12–3
  6. 7th InningRice homered to right center (402 feet).9–2
  7. 1st InningRice grounded into fielder's choice to second, Grisham scored, Bellinger safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Altuve, Judge to third.1–0
  8. 7th InningShewmake homered to right center (403 feet).12–4
  9. 6th InningCaballero singled to right, Grichuk scored, Escarra to second, Chisholm Jr. to third.7–2
  10. 4th InningSmith grounded out to shortstop, Altuve scored, Walker to second.5–2
  11. 4th InningChisholm Jr. homered to right (393 feet).5–1
  12. 7th InningCaballero homered to left (337 feet).12–2
  13. 7th InningChisholm Jr. singled to right, Grichuk scored, Chisholm Jr. to second.10–2
  14. 2nd InningDiaz singled to right, Altuve scored, Smith to second.4–1
  15. 2nd InningMcMahon homered to left (336 feet).4–0

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