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In The Rafters

CHC @ LAD

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Afternoon GameOutdoor4:15 PM PT⚾ Colin Rea vs Roki SasakiMLB.TV
Result readLos Angeles Dodgers

Chicago Cubs 4 · Los Angeles Dodgers 12

Final
Chicago Cubs27-14-1+1.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.0) · expected win rate 61% · last 10: 80%
Los Angeles Dodgers24-16+1.7 net/g (SOS-adj +1.6) · expected win rate 68% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeDodger StadiumHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Two reasons the projection lands on Los Angeles Dodgers: Los Angeles Dodgers’s scoring margin profile and Chicago Cubs’s recent stretch. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 62%. Actual: Los Angeles Dodgers by 8.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Chicago Cubs

Los Angeles Dodgers

Injury Report

Los Angeles Dodgers

Mookie Betts10-Day-ILBen Casparius15-Day-ILTyler Glasnow15-Day-ILGavin Stone60-Day-ILBrusdar Graterol15-Day-IL

Chicago Cubs

Jeff BrighamDay-To-DayJaxon WigginsDay-To-DayJordan Wicks15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd15-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Chicago Cubs
IH Ian Happ LF · #8 PC Crow-Armstrong CF · #4 MS Matt Shaw RF · #6 AB Alex Bregman 3B · #3 DS Dansby Swanson SS · #7 NH Nico Hoerner 2B · #2 MB Michael Busch 1B · #29 EC Edward Cabrera P · #30 MB M. Ballesteros C · #25
Los Angeles Dodgers
TH T. Hernandez LF · #37 AP Andy Pages CF · #44 KT Kyle Tucker RF · #23 MM Max Muncy 3B · #13 HK Hyeseong Kim SS · #6 AF Alex Freeland 2B · #76 FF F. Freeman 1B · #5 ES Emmet Sheehan P · #80 WS Will Smith C · #16

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreBallesteros homered to right center (374 feet).4th Inning3–2
  2. ScoreKim grounded out to first, Rushing scored, Pages to third.6th Inning4–11
  3. ScoreSuzuki homered to left center (404 feet).2nd Inning1–0
  4. ScorePages scored on Velasquez wild pitch.6th Inning4–12
  5. ScoreAmaya homered to right center (390 feet).5th Inning4–8
  6. ScorePages singled to center, T. Hernández scored, Rushing to second.4th Inning3–8

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Chicago Cubs011110000490
Los Angeles Dodgers00260400—12141

Chicago Cubs

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner 2B·2-3302000012.309.381.482
Nicky Lopez 3B0-2200000214.000.000.000
Michael Busch 1B·1-5501100118.208.283.297
Alex Bregman 3B·0-3300000114.259.333.384
Michael Conforto RF1-110100003.333.469.458
Ian Happ LF·0-2200001213.245.357.500
Matt Shaw RF0-110000004.300.338.483
Seiya Suzuki RF·3-4413110015.327.439.564
Moises Ballesteros C·1-3311111027.397.446.690
Dansby Swanson SS·0-4400000113.200.336.433
Pete Crow-Armstrong CF·0-4400000413.235.291.314
Miguel Amaya C·1-3321110016.234.345.383

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Colin Rea SP·3.166644192-554.6192
Javier Assad SP2.176622070-397.5870
Vince Velasquez SP2.110001031-220.0031

Los Angeles Dodgers

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Shohei Ohtani DH·1-3321002020.240.371.430
Freddie Freeman 1B·1-5511100217.280.345.460
Max Muncy 3B·1-1111212016.300.394.633
Santiago Espinal 3B1-2211000010.250.250.350
Kyle Tucker RF·1-5511000120.235.319.363
Teoscar Hernandez LF·2-3322201014.247.299.427
Alex Call LF0-110000007.280.438.360
Dalton Rushing C·1-4411101225.400.4751.057
Andy Pages CF·2-5512300023.337.383.551
Hyeseong Kim SS·2-5512100124.357.429.476
Alex Freeland 2B·2-4412100117.239.307.343

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Roki Sasaki SP·5.074415399-666.3599
Jack Dreyer RP0.200012019-114.0919
Will Klein RP1.110002021-152.4521
Kyle Hurt RP1.010001010-82.2510
Jake Eder RP1.000001013-84.5013

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 1st InningMuncy walked.
  2. 6th InningBallesteros walked, Suzuki to second, Happ to third.
  3. 1st InningPitch 9 : Ball 4
  4. 9th InningLopez struck out looking.
  5. 6th InningPitch 9 : Ball 4
  6. 1st InningOhtani stole second.
  7. 9th InningPitch 9 : Strike 3 Looking

Scoring Plays

  1. 4th InningBallesteros homered to right center (374 feet).3–2
  2. 6th InningKim grounded out to first, Rushing scored, Pages to third.4–11
  3. 2nd InningSuzuki homered to left center (404 feet).1–0
  4. 6th InningPages scored on Velasquez wild pitch.4–12
  5. 5th InningAmaya homered to right center (390 feet).4–8
  6. 4th InningPages singled to center, T. Hernández scored, Rushing to second.3–8
  7. 4th InningRushing singled to left, Espinal scored, T. Hernández to second.3–7
  8. 3rd InningBusch singled to right, Amaya scored.2–0
  9. 6th InningPages scored on Velasquez wild pitch.4–12
  10. 6th InningPages doubled to left, Tucker scored and T. Hernández scored, Rushing to third.4–10
  11. 4th InningFreeland doubled to left, Kim scored.3–3
  12. 3rd InningMuncy homered to right center (387 feet), Ohtani scored.2–2
  13. 4th InningT. Hernández singled to center, Freeman scored and Ohtani scored, Espinal to third.3–6
  14. 4th InningFreeman singled to left, Freeland scored, Ohtani to second.3–4

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