NYY @ HOU
Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameIndoor6:10 PM CT⚾ Ryan Weathers vs Mike BurrowsMLB.TV
Result readNew York Yankees
New York Yankees 8 · Houston Astros 3
Final
New York Yankees26-15+1.8 net/g (SOS-adj +1.5) · expected win rate 68% · last 10: 60%
Houston Astros16-25-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 43% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeDaikin ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Two reasons the projection lands on New York Yankees: New York Yankees’s scoring margin profile and New York Yankees’s recent stretch. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: New York Yankees at 95%. Actual: New York Yankees by 5.
Pre-game pick: New York Yankees at 95%. Actual: New York Yankees by 5.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
New York Yankees
- Cam Schlittler SP · #31
- Max Fried SP · #54
- Aaron Judge RF · #99
- Ben Rice 1B · #22
Houston Astros
- Mike Burrows SP · #50
- Lance McCullers Jr. SP · #43
- Kai-Wei Teng RP · #17
- Christian Walker 1B · #8
Injury Report
Houston Astros
Tatsuya Imai15-Day-ILLance McCullers Jr.Day-To-DayWalker JanekDay-To-DayLucas SpenceDay-To-DayYainer Diaz10-Day-IL
New York Yankees
Jose CaballeroDay-To-DayBen HessDay-To-DayGerrit Cole15-Day-ILGiancarlo Stanton10-Day-ILJasson Dominguez10-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreGrisham homered to left (363 feet).1–1
- ScoreRice hit sacrifice fly to center, McMahon scored, Caballero to third.6–2
- ScoreBellinger walked, Grisham scored, Judge to second, Rice to third.4–2
- ScoreCaballero homered to left center (357 feet).2–1
- ScoreParedes singled to left, Correa scored.0–1
- ScoreChisholm Jr. walked, Rice scored, Bellinger to second, Judge to third.5–2
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 0 |
| Houston Astros | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
New York Yankees
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Grisham CF· | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 23 | .169 | .330 | .364 |
| Ben Rice 1B· | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | .337 | .457 | .759 |
| Aaron Judge RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 29 | .229 | .373 | .542 |
| Cody Bellinger LF· | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 22 | .261 | .375 | .413 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | .204 | .295 | .323 |
| Amed Rosario 3B· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | .263 | .302 | .526 |
| Austin Wells C· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 21 | .188 | .338 | .297 |
| Ryan McMahon 3B· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .172 | .294 | .276 |
| Jose Caballero SS· | 3-5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | .280 | .316 | .430 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Weathers SP· | 5.1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 86-56 | 3.21 | 86 |
| Fernando Cruz RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12-6 | 4.00 | 12 |
| Jake Bird RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9-7 | 6.75 | 9 |
| Camilo Doval RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13-7 | 6.75 | 13 |
| Tim Hill RP | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11-9 | 1.64 | 11 |
Houston Astros
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa SS· | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18 | .287 | .370 | .426 |
| Yordan Alvarez LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .353 | .464 | .755 |
| Isaac Paredes 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | .220 | .319 | .341 |
| Jose Altuve 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .260 | .358 | .413 |
| Christian Walker 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | .273 | .360 | .525 |
| Yainer Diaz C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | .215 | .238 | .329 |
| Cam Smith RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | .221 | .309 | .368 |
| Christian Vazquez C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .341 | .413 | .585 |
| Brice Matthews LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .140 | .229 | .279 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Burrows SP· | 5.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 92-55 | 6.25 | 92 |
| Steven Okert RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13-8 | 2.77 | 13 |
| Kai-Wei Teng RP | 0.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9-5 | 2.16 | 9 |
| Bennett Sousa RP | 0.1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 27-10 | 54.00 | 27 |
| AJ Blubaugh RP | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 29-15 | 6.23 | 29 |
| Jayden Murray RP | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19-11 | 6.00 | 19 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 3rd InningGrisham homered to left (363 feet).1–1
- 7th InningJudge walked, Rice to second, Grisham to third.
- 3rd InningPitch 6 : Ball In Play
- 7th InningPitch 9 : Ball 4
- 5th InningSmith grounded out to second.
- 3rd InningJudge walked.
- 3rd InningPitch 5 : Ball 3
Scoring Plays
- 3rd InningGrisham homered to left (363 feet).1–1
- 8th InningRice hit sacrifice fly to center, McMahon scored, Caballero to third.6–2
- 7th InningBellinger walked, Grisham scored, Judge to second, Rice to third.4–2
- 5th InningCaballero homered to left center (357 feet).2–1
- 1st InningParedes singled to left, Correa scored.0–1
- 7th InningChisholm Jr. walked, Rice scored, Bellinger to second, Judge to third.5–2
- 6th InningCorrea homered to left center (391 feet).2–2
- 9th InningWalker homered to left (398 feet).8–3
- 9th InningMcMahon singled to right, Rosario scored, Wells to second.8–2
- 9th InningWells singled to right, Bellinger scored, Rosario to third.7–2
- 7th InningWells homered to right (343 feet).3–2