NYY @ HOU
Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameIndoor1:10 PM CT⚾ Luis Gil vs Spencer ArrighettiMLB.TV
Result readHouston Astros
New York Yankees 4 · Houston Astros 7
Final
New York Yankees26-15+1.8 net/g (SOS-adj +1.5) · expected win rate 68% · last 10: 60%
Houston Astros16-25-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 43% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeDaikin ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans Houston Astros because New York Yankees owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and New York Yankees has the recent-form edge. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: New York Yankees at 96%. Actual: Houston Astros by 3.
Pre-game pick: New York Yankees at 96%. Actual: Houston Astros by 3.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
New York Yankees
- Cam Schlittler SP · #31
- Max Fried SP · #54
- Aaron Judge RF · #99
- Ben Rice 1B · #22
Houston Astros
- Mike Burrows SP · #50
- Lance McCullers Jr. SP · #43
- Kai-Wei Teng RP · #17
- Christian Walker 1B · #8
Injury Report
Houston Astros
Tatsuya Imai15-Day-ILLance McCullers Jr.Day-To-DayWalker JanekDay-To-DayLucas SpenceDay-To-DayYainer Diaz10-Day-IL
New York Yankees
Jose CaballeroDay-To-DayBen HessDay-To-DayGerrit Cole15-Day-ILGiancarlo Stanton10-Day-ILJasson Dominguez10-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- 🏃 DoubleGoldschmidt doubled to center, Chisholm Jr. scored.2–7
- 🏃 DoubleWalker doubled to left, Alvarez scored and Paredes scored.0–7
- ScoreWalker homered to center (432 feet), Paredes scored.0–2
- ScoreParedes singled to left, Correa scored, Alvarez to third.0–5
- ScoreMcMahon singled to right, Escarra scored.4–7
- ScoreJudge homered to center (401 feet).1–7
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| Houston Astros | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 7 | 7 | 0 |
New York Yankees
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Grisham CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | .160 | .317 | .346 |
| Ben Rice 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .326 | .450 | .733 |
| Aaron Judge RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .230 | .369 | .560 |
| Cody Bellinger LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .250 | .362 | .396 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | .216 | .303 | .330 |
| Paul Goldschmidt 1B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .179 | .303 | .429 |
| J.C. Escarra C· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .214 | .241 | .357 |
| Ryan McMahon 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .177 | .292 | .274 |
| Jose Caballero SS· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .271 | .314 | .417 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Gil SP· | 4.0 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 83-48 | 6.05 | 83 |
| Paul Blackburn RP | 3.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 43-28 | 4.09 | 43 |
| Ryan Yarbrough RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11-9 | 4.09 | 11 |
Houston Astros
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa SS· | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18 | .281 | .375 | .417 |
| Yordan Alvarez LF· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | .358 | .465 | .755 |
| Isaac Paredes 3B· | 2-4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | .233 | .327 | .384 |
| Christian Walker 1B· | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .291 | .373 | .573 |
| Cam Smith RF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | .216 | .316 | .361 |
| Dustin Harris LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .000 | .200 | .000 |
| Brice Matthews LF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .136 | .224 | .273 |
| Christian Vazquez C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | .311 | .380 | .533 |
| Daniel Johnson CF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .125 | .300 | .125 |
| Braden Shewmake 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .200 | .200 | .800 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Arrighetti SP· | 7.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 96-64 | 2.00 | 96 |
| Bryan King RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11-7 | 3.86 | 11 |
| Enyel De Los Santos RP | 1.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24-16 | 6.10 | 24 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 9th InningJudge lined out to right.
- 9th InningPitch 7 : Ball In Play
- 9th InningPitch 6 : Ball 3
- 6th InningShewmake struck out swinging.
- 4th InningGoldschmidt grounded out to first.
Scoring Plays
- 9th InningGoldschmidt doubled to center, Chisholm Jr. scored.2–7
- 5th InningWalker doubled to left, Alvarez scored and Paredes scored.0–7
- 1st InningWalker homered to center (432 feet), Paredes scored.0–2
- 5th InningParedes singled to left, Correa scored, Alvarez to third.0–5
- 9th InningMcMahon singled to right, Escarra scored.4–7
- 6th InningJudge homered to center (401 feet).1–7
- 3rd InningParedes homered to left (364 feet), Alvarez scored.0–4
- 9th InningEscarra doubled to right, Goldschmidt scored.3–7