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InTheRafters.com

HOU @ BOS

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Afternoon GameOutdoor4:10 PM ET⚾ Spencer Arrighetti vs Connelly EarlyMLB.TV
Result readHouston Astros

Houston Astros 6 · Boston Red Sox 3

Final
Houston Astros16-25-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 43% · last 10: 50%
Boston Red Sox17-23-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeFenway ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Pick goes to Houston Astros on the back of Boston Red Sox’s margin work and Boston Red Sox’s last-ten momentum. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Boston Red Sox at 69%. Actual: Houston Astros by 3.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Houston Astros

Boston Red Sox

Injury Report

Boston Red Sox

Willson ContrerasDay-To-DayKutter Crawford15-Day-ILRoman Anthony10-Day-ILDanny Coulombe15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet15-Day-IL

Houston Astros

Tatsuya Imai15-Day-ILLance McCullers Jr.Day-To-DayWalker JanekDay-To-DayLucas SpenceDay-To-DayYainer Diaz10-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Houston Astros
YA Yordan Alvarez LF · #44 DJ Daniel Johnson CF · #31 CS Cam Smith RF · #11 IP Isaac Paredes 3B · #15 CC Carlos Correa SS · #1 JA Jose Altuve 2B · #27 CW C. Walker 1B · #8 MB Mike Burrows P · #50 YD Yainer Diaz C · #21
Boston Red Sox
JD Jarren Duran LF · #16 CR C. Rafaela CF · #3 WA Wilyer Abreu RF · #52 CD Caleb Durbin 3B · #5 TS Trevor Story SS · #10 MM Marcelo Mayer 2B · #11 WC W. Contreras 1B · #40 BB Brayan Bello P · #66 CN Carlos Narvaez C · #75

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreWalker singled to left, Correa scored, Paredes to second.1st Inning1–0
  2. ScoreAbreu singled to right, Contreras scored, Anthony to third.7th Inning6–2
  3. ScoreStory singled to left, Anthony scored, Abreu to second.7th Inning6–3
  4. ScoreContreras hit sacrifice fly to center, Wong scored.5th Inning6–1
  5. ScoreWalker homered to left (388 feet).5th Inning6–0
  6. ScoreMatthews homered to center (406 feet), Walker scored and Altuve scored.4th Inning4–0

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Houston Astros1004100006120
Boston Red Sox000010200380

Houston Astros

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Carlos Correa SS·2-4412101119.296.379.443
Yordan Alvarez LF·0-4400001121.331.438.685
Isaac Paredes 3B·1-4401001017.264.355.396
Christian Walker 1B·3-4423210016.309.386.577
Braden Shewmake 2B0-000000000.200.200.500
Jose Altuve 2B·1-5511000117.248.341.388
Yainer Diaz C·0-5500000110.238.255.347
Brice Matthews LF·2-3312311113.231.296.431
Cam Smith RF·1-4411000113.212.305.372
Dustin Harris LF·2-4402000116.233.294.300

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Spencer Arrighetti SP·5.051154087-501.9687
Enyel De Los Santos RP1.211101018-145.5418
Bennett Sousa RP0.021110013-811.5713
Kai-Wei Teng RP1.100012023-132.5723
Bryan King RP1.00000006-43.296

Boston Red Sox

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Jarren Duran LF·1-4401001120.176.239.278
Willson Contreras 1B·1-4411100013.263.372.474
Roman Anthony LF·1-3311002120.233.363.320
Wilyer Abreu RF·2-3302102023.306.378.471
Trevor Story SS·1-4401100115.208.245.300
Marcelo Mayer 2B·0-3300000112.244.308.354
Andruw Monasterio SS0-000000000.227.292.386
Masataka Yoshida LF0-000000104.265.400.327
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B0-000000000.229.270.229
Ceddanne Rafaela CF·1-4401000216.265.330.373
Connor Wong C·1-4411000112.244.326.366
Caleb Durbin 3B·0-3300001012.171.263.257

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Connelly Early SP·4.065533177-503.7977
Ryan Watson RP3.031114139-286.1039
Tyler Samaniego RP2.030000026-180.0026

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 6th InningCorrea struck out swinging.
  2. 5th InningParedes flied out to left.
  3. 1st InningCorrea walked.
  4. 7th InningRafaela struck out looking.
  5. 7th InningYoshida walked, Story to second, Abreu to third.

Scoring Plays

  1. 1st InningWalker singled to left, Correa scored, Paredes to second.1–0
  2. 7th InningAbreu singled to right, Contreras scored, Anthony to third.6–2
  3. 7th InningStory singled to left, Anthony scored, Abreu to second.6–3
  4. 5th InningContreras hit sacrifice fly to center, Wong scored.6–1
  5. 5th InningWalker homered to left (388 feet).6–0
  6. 4th InningMatthews homered to center (406 feet), Walker scored and Altuve scored.4–0
  7. 4th InningCorrea singled to right, Smith scored.5–0

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