HOU @ BOS
Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameOutdoor1:35 PM ET53°F · 14 mph wind · overcast⚾ Cody Bolton vs Ranger SuarezMLB.TV
Result readHouston Astros
Houston Astros 3 · Boston Red Sox 1
Final
Houston Astros16-25-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 43% · last 10: 50%
Boston Red Sox17-23-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeFenway ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Houston Astros is the model’s call — Boston Red Sox on the margin numbers, Boston Red Sox on the form numbers. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Boston Red Sox at 64%. Actual: Houston Astros by 2.
Pre-game pick: Boston Red Sox at 64%. Actual: Houston Astros by 2.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Houston Astros
- Mike Burrows SP · #50
- Lance McCullers Jr. SP · #43
- Kai-Wei Teng RP · #17
- Christian Walker 1B · #8
Boston Red Sox
- Brayan Bello SP · #66
- Connelly Early SP · #71
- Trevor Story SS · #10
- Willson Contreras 1B · #40
Injury Report
Boston Red Sox
Willson ContrerasDay-To-DayKutter Crawford15-Day-ILRoman Anthony10-Day-ILDanny Coulombe15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet15-Day-IL
Houston Astros
Tatsuya Imai15-Day-ILLance McCullers Jr.Day-To-DayWalker JanekDay-To-DayLucas SpenceDay-To-DayYainer Diaz10-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- 💣 Home RunSmith singled to left, Altuve scored and Shewmake scored, Matthews thrown out at home.3–1
- 💣 Home RunMatthews sacrificed into double play, left to catcher to third, Walker scored, Altuve thrown out at third.1–1
- ScoreDuran homered to right (376 feet).0–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Houston Astros
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa SS· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 27 | .288 | .380 | .432 |
| Yordan Alvarez LF· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .326 | .430 | .667 |
| Isaac Paredes 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 31 | .264 | .357 | .400 |
| Christian Walker 1B· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | .317 | .396 | .579 |
| Braden Shewmake 2B | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .200 | .200 | .500 |
| Jose Altuve 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .248 | .338 | .392 |
| Brice Matthews LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 24 | .221 | .289 | .412 |
| Cam Smith RF· | 3-5 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | .229 | .316 | .381 |
| Christian Vazquez C· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .333 | .390 | .519 |
| Yainer Diaz C | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .238 | .255 | .347 |
| Dustin Harris LF· | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .226 | .286 | .290 |
| Shay Whitcomb 3B | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | .077 | .143 | .308 |
| Daniel Johnson CF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .143 | .294 | .143 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Bolton SP· | 2.1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 61-36 | 4.63 | 61 |
| AJ Blubaugh RP | 3.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 59-34 | 5.32 | 59 |
| Steven Okert RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12-8 | 4.20 | 12 |
| Enyel De Los Santos RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20-15 | 5.14 | 20 |
| Bryan Abreu RP | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 22-15 | 10.32 | 22 |
Boston Red Sox
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarren Duran LF· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .186 | .246 | .310 |
| Willson Contreras 1B· | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | .280 | .387 | .492 |
| Roman Anthony LF· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | .231 | .357 | .324 |
| Wilyer Abreu RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 28 | .298 | .379 | .460 |
| Andruw Monasterio SS· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | .217 | .294 | .370 |
| Masataka Yoshida LF | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .280 | .410 | .340 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .229 | .270 | .229 |
| Marcelo Mayer 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | .244 | .313 | .349 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | .255 | .325 | .358 |
| Carlos Narvaez C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | .229 | .260 | .357 |
| Caleb Durbin 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .165 | .254 | .248 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez SP· | 4.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 70-46 | 2.77 | 70 |
| Tyler Samaniego RP | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13-8 | 0.00 | 13 |
| Greg Weissert RP | 1.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22-14 | 5.27 | 22 |
| Jovani Moran RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11-5 | 2.33 | 11 |
| Garrett Whitlock RP | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19-12 | 2.70 | 19 |
| Aroldis Chapman RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 17-11 | 0.84 | 17 |
| Zack Kelly RP | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19-10 | 3.55 | 19 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 9th InningVázquez singled to center.
- 8th InningMayer struck out swinging.
- 6th InningMonasterio walked.
- 2nd InningMatthews flied out to right.
- 9th InningPitch 7 : Ball In Play
- 8th InningPitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging
Scoring Plays
- 10th InningSmith singled to left, Altuve scored and Shewmake scored, Matthews thrown out at home.3–1
- 6th InningMatthews sacrificed into double play, left to catcher to third, Walker scored, Altuve thrown out at third.1–1
- 5th InningDuran homered to right (376 feet).0–1